华北地区主要断裂带上的库仑应力变化及地震活动性分析  

THE COULOMB STRESS CHANGES AND SEISMICITY ON SOME MAJOR FAULTS IN NORTH CHINA

作　　者：张群伟 朱守彪[1] ZHANG Qun-wei;ZHU Shou-biao(Institute of Crustal Dynamics,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100085,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地壳应力研究所地壳动力学重点实验室

出　　处：《地震地质》2019年第3期649-669,共21页Seismology and Geology

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金项目(8152034);国家自然科学基金项目(41574041);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项(ZDJ2017-08)共同资助

摘　　要：华北地区活断层丰富、地震频发。由于所处地理位置具有特殊性,其频繁的地震活动备受关注。为此,文中根据弹性位错理论和分层岩石圈模型,计算了1820年以来华北地区中强地震(MS≥6.0)引起的同震及震后介质黏弹性松弛产生的库仑应力变化。计算结果显示,自1888年渤海湾地震发生后的24个地震中,共有19个落在了库仑应力变化的正值区域,触发率达79%;计算结果进一步表明,宁河新乡地震带的滦县-乐亭断裂、潘庄西断裂、东明-成武断裂、郓城断裂、隆尧断裂,郯庐地震带的营口-潍坊断裂,首都圈地区夏垫断裂,黄庄-高丽营断裂带上的库仑应力变化增加,其地震危险性相对较高,仍需要进一步的深入研究。In recent years,the Coulomb stress change induced by large earthquakes has attracted extensive attention in seismology.Many scientists at home and abroad have made remarkable achievements in the research on it.It is well known that North China is densely populated and industrially developed.More importantly,the Chinese capital city,Beijing,lies in the hinterland of North China.At the same time,there are abundant active faults and earthquakes in North China.The capital Beijing is China s political,economic,cultural,and transportation center.It is the center of all social activities and economic activities in the country,and is also a region where population,wealth,and information are highly concentrated.With the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the construction of Xiong an New District,the consequences of big earthquake in Beijing and surrounding areas are unimaginable.Due to its special geographical location,frequent seismic activities in North China capture much attention.From the physical principle,the occurrence of earthquakes releases the accumulated stress,but the stress does not completely disappear.Some of the stresses are transmitted and transferred to other areas,resulting in stress concentration in some areas,which in turn affects the occurrence of earthquakes in the area.This is the idea of stress triggering of earthquakes.According to this hypothesis,the enhancement of Coulomb stress corresponds to the additional loading of the fault and promotes the occurrence of earthquakes;conversely,the weakening of the Coulomb stress in the stress shadow zone corresponds to partial unloading of the fault,which will delay the occurrence of the earthquake.In order to study the future seismic activity of North China,this paper estimates risks of future strong earthquakes in the region.To this end,we calculate the coseismic Coulomb stress changes and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation stresses of the events with M S≥6.0 that occurred in the North China region since 1820,using elastic dislocation theory and

关 键 词：库仑应力变化 介质黏弹性松弛 地震危险性 华北地区 

分 类 号：P315.2[天文地球—地震学]