应用地理探测器改进地面沉降危险性评估模型的研究  

Hazard assessment model of land subsidence based on geographical detector

作　　者：石鹏远 余洁[1,2,3] 朱琳[1,2,3] 王彦兵[1,2,3] SHI Pengyuan;YU Jie;ZHU Lin;WANG Yanbing(State Key Laboratory Incubation Base of Urban Environmental Processes and Digital Simulation,Capital Normal University,Beijing100048,China;College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University,Beijing100048,China;Key Laboratory of 3-Dimensional Information Acquisition and Application,Ministry of Education,Capital Normal University,Beijing100048,China)

机构地区：[1]首都师范大学城市环境过程与数字模拟国家重点实验室培育基地,北京100048 [2]首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京100048 [3]首都师范大学三维信息获取与应用教育部重点实验室,北京100048

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2019年第3期101-112,共12页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：地表载荷作用下MTINSAR城市地面沉降监测及时空多尺度演化规律挖掘(41671417);科技创新服务能力建设-基本科研业务费(科研类)(025185305000/191)

摘　　要：地面沉降危险性评估对受地面沉降灾害影响的城市有着重要的参考意义。目前应用较广泛的因子叠加模型和模糊层次分析模型存在着评估指标权重的确定人工干预较强,影响评估结果的问题。本文采用地理探测器分别对因子叠加模型和模糊层次分析模型进行改进,根据各评估因子的分布与沉降分布的关联性定量地计算各项评估指标的权重。本文利用改进后的三个模型:地理探测器--最大值因子叠加模型、地理探测器--加权因子叠加模型以及地理探测器--模糊层次分析模型分别进行地面沉降危险性评估,并与最大值因子叠加模型、加权因子叠加模型、模糊层次分析模型进行对比,结果表明:改进后的模型总体评估准确度分别为75.23%、89.56%、76.38%,均高于未改进模型的60.51%、53.73%、65.05%。Risk assessment of land subsidence is a significant indicator of the potential risk for urban safety caused by land subsidence. The widely used factor overlapping model and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model have a problem that is the determination of index weights of the models is affected significantly by human experience, which resulting in relatively subjective assessment result. We propose amethodby combining factor overlapping model and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model with geographical detector separately. Index weights are determined by the relationship of geographical distribution between factors and land subsidence. Three models combined with geographical detector( Geographical Detector-Maximum Value Factor Overlapping, Geographical Detector-Weighted Factor Overlapping, Geographical Detector-Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process) were applied to assess the hazard separately and validated by comparing the three models with three originalmodels. The result shows that the overall assessment accuracy of improved models are 75. 23%,89. 56% and 76. 38%,the overall assessment accuracy of originalmodels are 60. 51%,53. 73%and 65. 05%. Models combined 00 with geographical detector have a higher overall assessment accuracy.

关 键 词：地面沉降 危险性评估 地理探测器 加权综合评价法 模糊层次法 

分 类 号：P642.26[天文地球—工程地质学]