基于运行可靠性理论的高可靠性供电路径搜索方法  

The High Reliability Supply Path Searching Method Based on the Operational Reliability Theory

作　　者：刘满君[1] 程林[1] 黄道姗 叶小晖 徐振华 Liu Manjun;Cheng Lin;Huang Daoshan;Ye Xiaohui;Xu Zhenhua(State Key Lab of Control and Simulation of Power Systems and Generation Equipments Department of Electrical Engineering Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 China;Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Fujian Electric Power Company Fuzhou 350003 China;China Electric Power Research Institute Cooperation Beijing 100192 China)

机构地区：[1]电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室(清华大学电机系),北京100084 [2]国网福建省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,福州350003 [3]中国电力科学研究院有限公司,北京100192

出　　处：《电工技术学报》2019年第14期3004-3011,共8页Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFB0903300)

摘　　要：对于电力系统中的重要用户,往往存在多条供电路径,以保证用户供电的可靠性水平。供电路径的可靠性受多种因素影响,如何在实时运行环境中评估不同供电路径的可靠性水平,并选择高可靠性供电路径是本文的研究重点。本文提出了改进的证据理论,考虑不同停运因素间的相关性,建立基于实测信息的合成多种停运因素的元件停运率模型,综合主观判断及客观数据支持对不同停运因素进行合成。在此基础之上,评估不同供电路径的实时可靠性水平,搜索高可靠性供电路径,以保证用户供电质量。算例分析表明,合成后的元件停运率模型可用于量化元件在多种停运因素共同作用下的停运率,在电力系统短期评估中定量分析电气元件及输电线路的实时可靠性水平,为提高重要用户的供电质量提供决策依据。For an important customer in the power system,there are more than one electricity supply path to maintain the supply reliability of the customer.Therefore,it is necessary to evaluate the real-time reliability of different supply paths considering various outage factors and locate the most reliable supply path.This paper proposes an improved evidence theory and presents a method to acquire the outage rate of electrical equipment considering various outage factors.The correlations between the various outage factors and critical outage factor are analyzed,and then an integrated outage rate model is established considering the subjective judgement and objective data based on the improved evidence theory.Subsequently,a method to find out the most reliable supply path is put forward.This outage rate model can be used to discover the potential outage components in the current operating condition,and also can be further used to search the higher reliability supply path for customers.

关 键 词：电力系统 运行可靠性 证据理论 供电路径 

分 类 号：TM726.3[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]