长江经济带经济增长对工业环境污染的动态影响——基于状态空间模型研究  

Study on the Dynamic Impact of Economic Growth on Industrial Pollution in the Yangtze River Economic Belt: Based on State-space Model

作　　者：周正柱 王俊龙 ZHOU Zhengzhu;WANG Junlong

机构地区：[1]上海应用技术大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《南京工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2019年第4期87-93,112,共8页Journal of Nanjing Tech University：Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“长江经济带城镇化与生态环境耦合协调评价及其发展机制创新研究”(16BSH033)

摘　　要：运用状态空间变参数模型,考虑产业结构、城镇化等控制变量因素,分别检验2003—2016年长江经济带区域经济增长对工业“三废”的动态影响。结果表明:长江经济带经济增长中对工业“三废”影响最大的是单位生产总值能耗,对人均工业废水排放量影响较大的是第二产业占GDP比重。工业“三废”状态空间模型中的一次项、二次项和三次项系数总体上呈现收敛态势,表明随着经济发展,经济增长对工业“三废”产生的影响逐渐降低。长江经济带工业“三废”环境库兹涅茨曲线形态呈现一定的差异性,表现为“N”、倒“N”和单调递减等多种形态。This paper uses the State Space Variable Parameter model to examine the dynamic effects of regional economic growth on industrial waste discharge in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2016, and considers control variables such as urbanization, industrial structure. The results of the study indicate that: The energy consumption per unit of GDP in the control variables has the greatest impact on industrial waste discharge, and the share of GDP in the secondary industry has a greater impact on the per capita industrial waste discharge. The coefficients ofα 1,t ,α 2,t andα 3,t in the State Space Variable Parameter model of industrial waste discharge are generally convergent, indicating that as the economy develops, its impact on the industrial pollution will gradually decrease. The Kuznets curve of industrial waste discharge condition in the Yangtze River Economic Zone shows different forms, including "N", inverted "N" and monotonous decline.

关 键 词：工业环境污染 长江经济带 状态空间模型 环境库兹涅茨曲线 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]