不实信息引发的社会热点事件网络舆论反转演变仿真及治理研究  

Research on the Evolution Simulation and Governance of Network Public Opinion Reversal in Social Hot Events Caused by False Information

作　　者：汪明艳[1] 朱德米 张鹏翥[3] 郭旭辉 WANG Ming-yan;ZHU De-mi;ZHANG Peng-zhu;GUO Xv-hui(School of Management,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620,China;School of International and Public Affairs,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200030,China;Antai College Economics&Management,Shanghia Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200030,China)

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海201620 [2]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院,上海200030 [3]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200030

出　　处：《中国软科学》2019年第6期59-66,共8页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(17BGL159);国家社科基金重大项目(13ZD176);上海交通大学中央高校基本科研项目(16JCCS08)

摘　　要：对我国2015-2017年30个网络舆论反转事件统计分析,归纳影响舆论反转的主要因素。将传统SIR模型改进为六种状态变化规则,并在不同的状态上加入观点,并且按照现实世界中网络舆论信息扩散特点界定了各状态之间的转移过程和转移概率,构建了基于BA无标度网络的网络舆论反转演变模型。通过仿真分析揭示了媒体和政府干预主体、反转信息介入时间的差异性等主要因素对网络舆论反转强度、传播速率演变产生的重要影响。研究深化了网络舆论反转的演变机理的理论基础,也为政府舆论治理的策略提供了决策参考。The paper makes a statistical analysis of 30 public opinion reversal events in China from 2015 to 2017 and summarizes the main factors which influence public opinion reversal. The study modified the traditional SIR model with six states, and individual opinions are added in different states. Moreover, according to the information diffusion characteristics of public opinion in the real world, the transfer process and the transfer probability of each state are defined. The evolution model of network public opinion reversal based on BA scale-free network is constructed. The analysis of the simulation model revealed the different results from the intervention of media and government, time of reverse information. These parameters have important influence on public opinion reversal in the amplitude, velocity, etc. The study deepens the theoretical basis of the evolution mechanism of the reversal of network public opinion, and also provides decision-making reference for the governance strategy of public opinion for government.

关 键 词：舆论反转 SIR模型 演变仿真 舆论治理 

分 类 号：G301[文化科学]