农村金融集聚对农民消费影响研究  

Research on the Impact of Rural Financial Agglomeration on Rural Residents’ Consumption

作　　者：董秀良[1,2] 满媛媛[1,2] 王轶群 DONG Xiu-liang;MAN Yuan-yuan;WANG Yi-qun(School of Management, Jilin University, Jilin Changchun 130022, China;Rural Finance Research Cent er, Jilin University, Jilin Changchun 130012, China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学管理学院,吉林长春130022 [2]吉林大学农村金融研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2019年第4期688-703,共16页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71373100);吉林省科技厅科技引导计划软科学项目(20180418092FG);吉林大学省校共建专项研究项目(502041)

摘　　要：农村金融发展对于降低农民流动性约束,促进农村消费至关重要,而农村金融聚集又是农村金融发展水平的重要体现。本文基于跨期消费选择理论,在对农村金融聚集对农民消费影响机制的梳理和数理分析的基础上,通过构建门槛面板模型和分位数回归模型,基于2006~2016年数据,实证检验了农村金融聚集对农民消费影响的区域差异性和群体差异性。面板门槛模型的估计结果显示,在全国层面上农村金融集聚对农村居民消费有显著的正向影响效应,且存在非对称的"门槛效应",当收入水平超过门槛值后,农村金融集聚对农民消费有显著的提升作用。而分区域研究则显示,中、西部地区农村金融集聚对农民消费的影响具有显著的门槛特征,东部和东北地区门槛特征不显著;分位数模型研究结果表明,对应于不同的分位数,农村金融集聚对农村居民消费均有显著的正向影响,但这种影响也是非对称的,农村金融集聚对低消费群体和高消费群体影响更大。实证研究结果表明,如何提高农村金融对低收入者的普惠性和对相对高收入者的易得性仍是解决农村消费乏力、缓解农民生产和生活消费流动性约束的关键所在。The development of rural finance is crucial to reduce the restriction of rural residents’ mobility and promote rural consumption,and rural financial agglomeration is an important reflection of the level of rural financial development.Based on the theory of intertemporal consumption choice,this paper mathematically analyses and sorts out the influence mechanism of rural financial agglomeration on rural residents’ consumption,and builds threshold panel model and quantile regression model to test the regional and group differences of the impact of rural financial agglomeration on rural residents’ consumption based on the data from 2006 to 2016.Threshold panel model estimates show that rural financial agglomeration has a significant positive impact on rural residents’ consumption at the national level,and there is an asymmetric"threshold effect".When the income level exceeds the threshold,rural financial agglomeration has a significant effect on promoting rural residents’ consumption.The different regional study shows that rural financial agglomeration has significant threshold characteristics on farmers’ consumption in the central and western regions,but not in the eastern and northeastern regions.Quantile regression model results show that rural financial agglomeration has significant positive impact on rural residents’ consumption corresponding to different quantiles.But the impact is asymmetric.The rural financial agglomeration has a greater impact on low-consumption and high-consumption groups.Empirical research results show that how to improve the inclusiveness of rural finance to low-income people and the accessibility to relatively high-income people is still the key to solve rural consumption weakness and alleviate the liquidity constraints of rural residents’ production and consumption.

关 键 词：金融集聚 农民消费 门槛面板模型 分位数回归模型 

分 类 号：F830.6[经济管理—金融学] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]