消费升级还是消费降级  

Consumption Upgrading or Downgrading

作　　者：石明明[1] 江舟 周小焱 SHI Ming-ming;JIANG Zhou;ZHOU Xiao-yan(Business School, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;Krannert School of Management, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN 47907, USA)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学商学院 [2]美国普渡大学克兰纳特管理学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2019年第7期42-60,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“黏性消费增长框架下城镇化扩大消费的潜力评估与效应模拟”(批准号41401124);国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“新时代我国家庭消费持续增长的动力机制研究”(批准号18FJY018)

摘　　要：新一轮“消费升级”是中国经济社会高质量发展的重要支撑。本文基于消费升级的基准框架,围绕中国居民消费结构的动态演变,分别从消费结构和消费习惯两个层面对消费升级内涵进行分析。其中,消费结构部分使用微观数据与宏观数据进行了相互印证。消费结构层面的分析表明,1998—2017年,中国城乡居民的第I类消费升级(食品等生存性消费占比下降)和第II类消费升级(符号性和服务性消费占比上升)均在持续不断地进行,但乡村居民的第I类消费升级效应小于城镇居民;2013年以后,随着中国宏观经济下行压力增大,第II类消费升级出现一定程度的放缓,居住类支出对其他消费支出形成了较大的挤出效应。消费习惯层面的分析显示,城镇居民和乡村居民、恩格尔系数大于40%和小于40%的居民,其消费行为存在较大的异质性。乡村居民和恩格尔系数大于40%的居民,其总消费和分项消费增长受到的制约因素更多。本文的研究为部分存在的消费降级问题提供了可能的解释。“Consumption upgrade”is an important support for the high-quality development of China’s economy and society.This paper analyses the connotation of consumption upgrading from two aspects and does researches on dynamic evolution of Chinese residents’consumption structure.The consumption structure part uses micro-data and macro-data to verify each other.The results show that,during the period of 1998-2017,the first type of consumption upgrade(the decline in the proportion of food consumption)and the second type of consumption upgrade(the increase in the proportion of symbolic and service consumption)of urban and rural residents are going on.The first type of consumption upgrading is less significant among rural residents.After 2013,with the downward pressure on China’s macro economy,the second type of consumption upgrade slows down and the expenditure on housing has a large crowding out effect on other consumption.The results of consumption growth model estimation show that there is a large heterogeneity in consumption characteristics between urban and rural residents,residents with the Engel’s coefficient more than 40%and residents with the Engel’s coefficient less than 40%.Rural residents and residents with Engel coefficient more than 40%are subject to more restrictions on their consumption growth.The study provides several possible explanations for consumption degradation phenomenon.

关 键 词：消费升级 消费降级 粘性消费增长 近似理想需求体系 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济]