基于大数据库分析的大兴安岭地区夏季区域洪水影响因素研究  

Study on the Influencing Factors of Regional Flood in the Greater Khingan Mountains Area during Summer based on Large Database Analysis

作　　者：吴振凯 于成刚[2,3] WU Zhenkai;YU Chenggang(College of Hydraulic and Electric Power,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080,China;Institute of Cold Area Groundwater,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080,China;The Greater Khingan Hydrology Bureau,Jiagedaqi,China 165000)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江大学水利电力学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [2]黑龙江大学寒区地下水研究所,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [3]黑龙江省大兴安岭水文局,黑龙江加格达奇165000

出　　处：《中国水能及电气化》2019年第7期44-50,11,共8页China Water Power & Electrification

摘　　要：文章通过建立大兴安岭区域洪水有关气候气象因子、自然因子、洪水系列特征等大数据库,利用相关、关联性、小波、方差等分析技术找到区域洪水的影响因子,并分析其演变规律,发现了大兴安岭区域性洪水发生的原驱动方式。即同处于北半球的地极移动和北大西洋环流转换与大兴安岭夏季区域洪水之间存在一种环状的扰动、耦合机制,并以此建立了该区域洪水的长期预报模式。Correlation, relatedness, wavelet, variance and other analysis technology are utilized for discovering regional flood impact factors by establishing flood climate meteorological factor, natural factor, flood series features and other big database in the Greater Khingan Mountains Area. The evolution law thereof is analyzed. The original drive mode of regional floods in the Greater Khingan Mountains Area is discovered. In other words, there is a circular disturbance and coupling mechanism among the northern hemisphere earth poleshift, the north Atlantic circulation transition and the summer regional flood in the Greater Khingan Mountains. The long-term forecast model of flood in the area is established.

关 键 词：数据水文 背景分析法 气候类自然因子 大气环流特征 大西洋-环流型冬季指数 地极移动 钱德勒周期 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]