日本对华直接投资对中日两国经济发展影响探究  

Japanese Direct Investment in China and Its Impact on Chinese and Japanese Economies

作　　者：田正[1] TIAN Zheng

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院日本研究所

出　　处：《东北亚学刊》2019年第4期132-143,152,共13页Journal of Northeast Asia Studies

摘　　要：日本对华直接投资走过四十年的发展历程,贯穿于中国改革开放全过程,对中国经济发展起到重要的推动作用,同时促进了日本的经济发展,实现互利共赢。日本对华直接投资发展可分为探索启动、加速增长、持续深化、转型调整等四个阶段。通过使用回归与ARMA组合模型、格兰杰因果关系检验等实证分析方法,证实日本对华直接投资促进中国的技术进步、产业升级转型,改善就业形势,增强对日出口。日本对华直接投资扩大了日本的海外资金收益,采用时间序列的分析方法证实其间接推动了日本技术创新及对华出口贸易,促进日本经济增长。随着中日两国经贸关系的日益紧密,日本对华直接投资有望进一步发展。The development of Japanese direct investment in China has already passed over 40 years,run through the entire process of the Chinese reform and opening up and played an important role in promoting Chinese economy development. Japanese direct investment in China promoted Japanese economy development and achieved mutual benefit and win-win results. Japanese direct investment in China can be divided into four stages,which are the exploration stage,accelerated growth stage,continuous deepening stage,and transformation and adjustment stage. Through the use of regression and ARMA combination model and Granger causality test,it is confirmed that Japanese direct investment in China promotes China's technological progress,industrial upgrading and transformation,improves the employment situation,and enhances exports to Japan. Japanese direct investment in China also expanded Japanese overseas capital gains. By the method of time-series analysis,we confirmed that it has indirectly promoted Japanese technological innovation and export trade with China and promoted Japan’s economic growth. We should continue to guide Japanese direct investment in China and boost the high-quality development of Chinese economy.

关 键 词：日本对华直接投资 技术进步 产业升级转型 中日进出口贸易 海外资金收益 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]