低保对象为何退保难?动态分析策略下的退保模式及其变迁趋势研究  

Why It Is Hard for Welfare Recipients to Exit Welfare?A Dynamic Study on Welfare Exit Pattern and Its Changing Tendency

作　　者：肖萌[1] 陈虹霖[2] 李飞跃[3] XIAO Meng;CHEN Honglin;LI Feiyue(Department of Applied Sociology,Tianjin Normal University;Department of Social Work,Fudan University;School of Economy,Nankai University)

机构地区：[1]天津师范大学应用社会学系 [2]复旦大学社会工作系 [3]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《社会》2019年第4期210-240,共31页Chinese Journal of Sociology

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“城市低保减贫绩效的精准化评估与提升路径研究”(19YJC840046)的研究成果~~

摘　　要：本文基于民政部2014年“中国城乡困难家庭社会政策支持系统建设”调查的数据,运用事件史分析方法,对城市低保接受时长和退保影响因素进行探究。研究发现,低保对象的救助接受时间呈现明显的长期化特点,但随着低保接受时间的延长,低保对象退保风险会逐渐上升。这与“时间依赖论”关于长期化救助接受会逐渐弱化救助对象工作伦理,进而造成救助退出可能性逐步下降的理论预设恰好相反,说明中国城市低保对象退保难与工作积极性下降无关。进一步的研究发现,弱势化的低保人口构成及就业救助服务缺失是长期低保接受的重要原因。此外,中国的非正规就业结构也对退保构成显著的不利影响,不过,该影响随着时代的发展在不断减弱。Based on data from "Evaluation on Chinese Urban and Rural Lowincome Household Support System(2014)",this paper uses the event history analysis method to explore the duration of welfare(dibao)and factors affecting dibao exit in the urban area.The study finds that welfare recipients commonly stay in welfare for long-term,however,it is not because of the"negative time dependence"or declining work motivation as claimed by the"time dependency hypothesis".On the contrary,the longer recipients remain in welfare,the likelihood ofexit increases,indicating that low exit rate is not caused by low work motivation.Further analysis shows that the low-income population suffers from labor capital deficiency and lacks employment assistance service,the two main determining factors leading to long-term welfare dependency.Furthermore,off-book informal employment constitutes an important barrier to dibao exit,even thoughits impact has been declining over the time.Several policy implications can be drawn from this study:Firstly,in tackling the issue of labor capital deficiency,a comprehensive growth-oriented welfare system should be developed;Secondly,the central government should increase its funding to ensure that local agencies have sufficient funds for employment assistance projects;Finally,the government should strengthen multi-sector information sharing mechanism and enhance the professionalization of means-tested eligibility to deal with off-book informal employment,and more importantly,change the Chinese employment structure by creating moreformal employment.

关 键 词：低保 社会救助 退保难 长期救助接受行为 事件史分析 

分 类 号：D632.1[政治法律—政治学]