基于改进灰色T型关联度的火灾损失因素分析  

Improved grey T-related degree in statistical analysis of fire losses

作　　者：马莉 刘义祥 贾南 许洁 MA Li;LIU Yi-xiang;JIA Nan;XU Jie(China People's Police University, Hebei Langfang 065000, China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民警察大学

出　　处：《消防科学与技术》2019年第6期897-899,共3页Fire Science and Technology

基　　金：河北省科技计划项目“面向大数据的城市火灾预测关键技术研究”(16215416);河北省高等学校科学技术研究项目“基于火灾预测的火灾巡查方法研究”(Z2018020);武警学院中青年教师科研创新计划课题(ZQN2017030)

摘　　要：为了研究火灾损失与引发火灾的电气、放火、生活用火不慎、违章操作、玩火、吸烟等因素之间的内部相关性,应用改进的灰色T型关联度方法,定量分析计算各起火原因与火灾受伤人数、死亡人数以及直接经济损失的关联度。实证结果表明,改进的灰色T型关联度分析方法克服了传统灰色理论结果容易失真的弊端,得到了更优的结果。电气、放火、违章操作与火灾人员伤亡及经济损失关系最为密切,生活用火不慎的关联度相对稳定,但其危害性也不容小觑。In order to study the internal correlation between fire losses and causes of fire such as electrical reason, arson, careless use of fire, illegal operation, smoking, and playing with fire, this paper uses the method of the improved grey T-related degree to calculate the associated degree between each factors of fire and the number of fire injuries and deaths, and the direct economic losses.The results show that the improved grey T-related degree overcomes the disadvantages of the traditional grey theory and obtains better results. Electric reason, arson and illegal operation are more closely related to fire losses. In addition, the associated degree of careless use of fire to them is relatively stable, but its harmfulness cannot be underestimated.

关 键 词：火灾损失 起火原因 灰色关联分析 改进灰色T型关联度 

分 类 号：X921[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TU998.12[建筑科学—市政工程]