1979-2014年中国地面风速的长期变化趋势  

The long-term trend of surface wind speed in China from 1979 to 2014

作　　者：王楠[1] 游庆龙[1] 刘菊菊 WANG Nan;YOU Qing-long;LIU Ju-ju(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD)/Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing 210044, China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2019年第7期1531-1542,共12页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0601702);国家自然科学基金项目(41771069);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)

摘　　要：基于中国国家级地面气象站均一化风速月值数据集,采用线性回归等方法分析了1979-2014年中国2268个台站地面风速演变的时空特征。结果表明:中国地面风速总体呈显著下降趋势,年平均风速变化速率为-0.142 m/s/10 a;四个季节中春季平均风速下降趋势(-0.18m/s/10 a)明显大于其他三个季节,其次依次为冬季(-0.135 m/s/10 a)、夏季(-0.13 m/s/10 a)及秋季(-0.129 m/s/10 a);研究选取的台站中约82%的台站风速呈现下降趋势;划分的七个区域中,高原区和东北区风速下降趋势最明显,华北区下降趋势最小,但都通过了0.05显著性检验;中国地面风速在1980s下降趋势最显著(-0.235 m/s/10 a),1990s下降趋势减缓(-0.112 m/s/10 a),2000-2014年下降趋势最小,为-0.099 m/s/10 a;研究期间地面风速与地面气温呈显著负相关,表明近期中国气温变暖可能导致风速减弱。Based on the monthly homogenized data, this paper explored the spatial and temporal changes of surface wind speed of 2268 stations in China during 1979-2014. In this paper, the linear regression and the five-point moving average are used to examine the trend of the climate change. The Pearson correlation coefficient is used to analyze the correlation. The Cressman interpolation method commonly used in meteorological data is adopted to interpolate the site data to grid data. In order to study the changes of surface wind speed in different parts of the country, China is divided into seven regions. The results are shown as follows. The mean surface wind speed in China generally showed a significant downward trend with an annual rate of-0.142 m/s/10 a, and it decreased with the largest trend magnitude in spring(-0.18 m/s/10 a), followed by winter(-0.135 m/s/10 a), summer(-0.13 m/s/10 a) and autumn(-0.129 m/s/10 a). Furthermore, about 82%(1868) of the selected stations showed a downward trend of surface wind speed. The significantly declining trend was found in the Tibetan Plateau and northeastern sub-regions classified in this paper, with the declining trend in North China being the smallest, and all passed the 0.05 significance test. In terms of interdecadal changes, the downward trend is slowing down. The declining trend of the whole country was most significant in the 1980 s(-0.235 m/s/10 a), and was slowed down to-0.112 m/s/10 a in the1990 s, then turned to the smallest in 2000-2014 with a rate of-0.099 m/s/10 a. During the study period, there was a significant negative correlation between surface wind speed and surface air temperature, indicating that the recent warming of China may cause the wind speed to weaken.

关 键 词：地面风速 线性回归 时空变化特征 均一化资料 

分 类 号：P425.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]