沪昆高铁通道“空铁联运”模式的经济模拟研究  

Air-rail Integration Economic Simulation of Shanghai to Kunming High Speed Railway Corridor

作　　者：郭旸[1] 于秋阳 陈昊洋 Guo Yang;Yu Qiuyang;Chen Haoyang(Department of Tourism, Fudan University,Shanghai 200433;Institute of Applied Economics,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Shanghai 200020)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学旅游学系,上海200433 [2]上海社会科学院应用经济研究所,上海200020

出　　处：《上海经济》2019年第4期71-81,共11页Shanghai Economy

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金面上一等项目(编号:2016M590371)阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文以空铁联运为视角,选取沪昆高铁通道为研究对象,基于时间可达性、费用可达性、经济交流潜力和旅游潜力4 项指标,运用GIS 空间分析技术,量化模拟沪昆高铁通道内民航高铁的竞合关系以及经济影响。研究结论发现:民航与高铁在区域内部分城市之间的运输区间有重合的情形,但民航更侧重于提供时间可达性优势的运输服务,高铁更侧重于提供成本费用优势的运输服务,以及城市交通覆盖率和经济交流潜力;在未开展空铁联运合作的假设条件下,空铁交通网络相比于高铁网络在时间可达性、经济交流潜力及旅游潜力没有显著优势。在开展空铁联运合作的假设条件下,空铁联运交通网络对时间可达性、经济交流潜力及旅游潜力均有提高,且空铁联运交通网络下的费用可达性有所下降。沪昆高铁通道区域内的空铁联运有助于缩小地区的时间可达性差异,对西部地区城市的经济交流潜力和旅游潜力的积极意义较为显著。In this paper, from the perspective of air-rail intermodality, the Shanghai-Kunming high-speed railway corridor is selected as the research object. Based on the four indicators of time accessibility, cost accessibility, economic exchange potential and tourism potential, the competitive relationship and economic impact of civil aviation high-speed railway in Shanghai-Kunming high-speed railway corridor are quantitatively simulated by using GIS spatial analysis technology. The results show that there is overlap between civil aviation and high-speed railway in some cities in the region, but civil aviation focuses more on providing transportation services with time-accessibility advantages, high-speed railway focuses more on providing transportation services with costcost advantages, as well as urban traffic coverage and economic exchange potential;empty railway is not carried out in China. Under the hypothesis of intermodal transport cooperation, the air-rail transport network has no significant advantages over the high-speed rail network in terms of time accessibility, economic exchange potential and tourism potential. Under the assumption of air-rail intermodality cooperation, air-rail intermodality network has increased time accessibility, economic exchange potential and tourism potential, and the cost accessibility under air-rail intermodality network has decreased. The air-rail intermodality in Shanghai-Kunming highspeed railway corridor area is helpful to narrow the regional differences in time accessibility, and has a significant positive significance for the economic exchange potential and tourism potential of cities in the western region.

关 键 词：沪昆高铁 空铁联运 经济模拟 

分 类 号：F223[经济管理—国民经济] F272.5