莫迪政府的中亚政策  

An In-Depth Look at the Modi Government’s Central Asian Policy

作　　者：张杰[1,2] 石泽 Zhang Jie;Shi Ze

机构地区：[1]西安外国语大学国际关系学院,西安710128 [2]西安外国语大学国际舆情和国际传播研究院,西安710128 [3]中国国际问题研究院,西安710128 [4]西安外国语大学

出　　处：《国际论坛》2019年第4期122-135,159,共15页International Forum

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“21世纪阿富汗族群冲突对国家政治秩序的冲击与影响研究”(项目批准号:18XJCGJW002);西安外国语大学“一带一路”区域国别研究专项项目“建设中国—巴基斯坦—阿富汗经济走廊的可行性研究”(项目批准号:18XWD19)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：尽管中亚国家被印度战略界视为"延伸的邻居",但在冷战结束后相当长的一段历史时期内,印度并未用心经营中亚地区。2012年以来,印度加大了对中亚国家的重视力度。莫迪政府上台后,在继承辛格政府"连接中亚"政策的基础上,采取了在政治上加强高层互访和制度安排,在经济上注重能源合作和增强地区连通,在安全上举行联合军演和提供援助,在文化上发展人文交流等一系列新举措。彰显印度的大国地位与处理跨地区事务的能力、提升国际威望,平衡中国、巴基斯坦在中亚地区的影响力,保证能源供应稳定,防止阿富汗安全威胁外溢,是莫迪政府加强与中亚国家关系的重要考量。尽管莫迪政府的中亚政策取得了一定成效,但仍面临着能力与意愿不相匹配,中亚国家因印度立场摇摆与行政效率低下而存在不满以及多边合作机制发展滞后等多重困境。随着莫迪再度连任,新一届政府继续发展与中亚国家的合作将是大概率事件,印度中亚政策的连贯性能够得到保证。Although India’s strategic circle regards Central Asian countries as "extended neighbors," India did not pay enough attention to the region for a fairly long time after the end of the Cold War. Since 2012, India has increased its attention to Central Asia. After the Modi government came into power in 2014, it built on the "Connect Central Asia" policy of the Singh administration. It has institutionalized high-level visits in the political area, enhanced energy cooperation and regional connectivity in the economic field, held joint military exercise and provided assistance in the security field, and deepened people-to-people exchanges in cultural aspect. The goal of these moves is to enhance India’s global prestige by demonstrating India’s status as a great power and its ability to deal with trans-regional affairs, balance the influence of China and Pakistan in central Asia, ensure stabile supply of energy, and prevent the spillover of Afghan security threats. Despite the achievements of the Modi government’s central Asian policy, it is still faced with dilemmas such as inadequate capacity to fully realize the goals, the dissatisfaction of central Asian countries over India’s policy vacillations and administrative inefficiency, and the underdevelopment of multilateral cooperation mechanisms. With Modi’s recent reelection, it is highly probable that the new government will enhance the cooperation with the central Asian countries. Overall the consistency in India’s central Asian policy can be assured.

关 键 词：莫迪政府 印度 中亚 中亚政策 

分 类 号：D50[政治法律—政治学]