农村人力资本、农业技术进步与农业碳排放  

Rural Human Capital, Agricultural Technology Progress and Agricultural Carbon Emissions

作　　者：张永强[1] 田媛 王珧 王荣[1] 彭有幸 Zhang Yongqiang;Tian Yuan;Wang Yao;Wang Rong;Peng Youxing(College of Economics and Management, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China)

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2019年第14期266-274,共9页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家软科学项目“利用国际科技合作资源打造东北现代农业升级版对策研究”(2014GXS2D017);黑龙江省哲学社会科学规划项目“黑龙江省农业社会化服务体系的运行机制与创新路径研究”(18JYH757);黑龙江省社科基金项目“粮食安全框架下黑龙江省种子产业创新战略研究”(14B066);黑龙江省软科学研究项目“黑龙江省绿色食品品牌战略研究”(GC15D111);哈尔滨市科技局软科学重点项目“发挥我市对台科技合作优势,做强绿色食品产业链的对策研究”(2017AC9QT010)

摘　　要：运用三阶段DEA-Malmquist模型测算中国30个省份农业技术进步估计值,利用系统广义矩估计考察农村人力资本、农业技术进步对农业碳排放的影响。结果表明,从国家层面,农业技术进步增加了农业碳排放总量,农业碳排放具有强路径依赖性和滞后性,农村人力资本的提升在农业技术进步对农业碳排放的正影响中起到显著的负向调节作用;从地域层面,东部技术进步值最低,中部农业碳排放总量最高,西部技术进步值最高、农业碳排放总量最低。东部农村人力资本在农业技术进步对农业碳排放的正影响中起到显著的负向调节作用,西部地区农村人力资本、农业产业结构在农业技术进步对农业碳排放的正影响中起到显著的负向调节作用。The three - stage DEA - Malmquist model is used to measure the total factor productivity, technological progress index and technical efficiency change index of 30 provinces in China from 2009 to 2016. Moreover, the emission factor method is applied to calculate the agricultural carbon emissions, and the SYS - GMM is used to examine the impact of rural human capital and agricultural technological progress on agricultural carbon emissions. The research shows that: first, at the national level, agricultural technology advancement increases the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions, and agricultural carbon emissions have strong path dependence and lag;the improvement of rural human capital plays a significantly negative role in the positive impact of agricultural technological progress on agricultural carbon emissions. Second, at the geographical level, the technological progress in the east is the lowest;the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions in the middle is the highest;the technological progress in the west is the highest, and the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions is the lowest. Third, eastern rural human capital has played a significantly negative role in regulating the positive impact of agricultural technological progress on agricultural carbon emissions, while rural human capital and agricultural industries in the western region play a significantly negative role in the positive impact of agricultural technological progress on agricultural carbon emissions.

关 键 词：农业技术进步 农业碳排放 三阶段DEA-Malmquist指数模型 系统广义矩估计 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]