香港交通服务-国际旅游-货物贸易(3T)互动关系的实证研究  

An Empirical Research on the Interaction of Transportation,International Tourism and Trade (3T) in Hong Kong

作　　者：马红红 孙根年[2] MA Honghong;SUN Gennian(College of Foreign Trade and Business,Chongqing Normal University,Hechuan Chongqing401520,China;College of Tourism and Environment Science,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an Shaanxi710062,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学涉外商贸学院,重庆合川401520 [2]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710119

出　　处：《重庆文理学院学报（社会科学版）》2019年第4期35-44,共10页Journal of Chongqing University of Arts and Sciences（Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：依据1997—2013年相关数据,运用协整分析及Granger因果检验模型,分析香港交通服务、国际旅游和货物贸易的互动关系。结果表明:交通服务对出入境旅游及货物进出口贸易、货物进出口贸易对出入境旅游具有显著拉动效应;交通服务进出口与出入境旅游、货物贸易进出口两两间存在短期波动和长期均衡关系;交通服务是货物贸易和入境旅游的单项Granger原因,出入境旅游与货物贸易互为单项Granger原因,证实了交通是互联互通的基础,在此基础上,旅游与贸易实现相互推动。研究为自由港建设和实现3T互动及协调发展提供了理论依据,并对“一带一路”相关枢纽城市建设具有启示意义。Based on the relevant data from 1997 to 2013,using co-integration analysis and Granger causality test model,the interaction of Hong Kong’s international tourism,trade and transportation was analyzed.The results shows that:the traffic service has a significant pulling effect on the inbound and outbound tourism and import and export trade of goods,and the import and export trade has a significant pulling effect on the inbound and outbound tourism.There are short-term fluctuations and long-term equilibrium relations between the import and export of traffic service and inbound tourism and import and export of goods;the traffic service is the single Granger cause of goods trade and inbound tourism,and inbound and outbound tourism and goods trade are each other’s Granger’s reason proving that transportation is the basis of interconnection,and on the basis,the tourism and trade promote each other.This study provides a theoretical basis for the free port construction and the realization of 3 T interaction and the coordinated development,and it has implications for the construction of the related hub city along"the belt and road".

关 键 词：交通-旅游-贸易互动 协整分析 GRANGER因果检验 香港 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]