基于地理探测器的绿洲城镇空间扩张驱动力分析——以新疆石河子市为例  

Driving Force Analysis of Spatial Expansion of Oasis Towns Based on Geographical Detectors: Take Shihezi City in Xinjiang as An Example

作　　者：王莉红 张军民 WANG Lihong;ZHANG Junmin(School of Science,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832000,China;Institute of Urban Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xiamen 361021,China;College of Environment and Resources,Guangxi Normal University,Guilin 541001,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学理学院,新疆石河子832000 [2]中国科学院城市环境研究所,福建厦门361021 [3]广西师范大学环境与资源学院,广西桂林541001

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2019年第4期68-74,共7页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41761030)

摘　　要：城市空间无序扩张是产生当代“城市病”的重要根源,既是可持续发展关注的热点,更是中国特色城市化发展面临的现实问题。根据城市增长自组织原理及其空间结构理论,基于遥感影像识别和空间分析技术,用空间统计分析和地理探测模型,以新疆石河子市为例分析了典型绿洲城市空间扩张的驱动因子及其作用关系,结果表明:(1)固定资产投资对建设用地扩张的解释力度最大,而人口因子的解释力最小,其他非人口因子的内生因子的解释力度较强。表明石河子市处于投资驱动初级阶段,投资规模及强度对城市扩张影响较大,但投资结构及投资效益改进不显著。(2)各因子交互作用呈线性增强关系,表明内生因子对建设用地扩张的交互作用具有明显的线性和非线性增强作用,符合城市化初级阶段的扩张规律。扩大人口及经济规模、提高要素及产出效率是提高交互效益的关键。(3)道路交通发展是城市扩张的最主要环境(背景)因子,但其解释力远远小于内生因子,其他环境因子的影响力和交互力都不明显,反映了城市扩张受到流域环境条件及生态基础的影响相对较弱,对稀缺或优势资源、要素及区位的竞争压力较小,绿洲城市还有较大的扩大空间和职能扩张潜力,应该有效利用城市规划手段来规范和引导城市有序发展和扩张。The disorderly expansion of urban space is an important source of contemporary“urban disease”.It is not only a hot spot for sustainable development,but also a realistic problem facing the development of urbanization with Chinese characteristics.According to the self-organization principle of urban growth and its spatial structure theory,based on remote sensing image recognition and spatial analysis technology,the driving factors of spatial expansion of typical oasis cities and their relations of action are analyzed with the spatial statistical analysis and geographic detection model.It is concluded that:(1)Fixed assets investment has the strongest interpretation of construction land expansion area,while the population factor has the least explanatory power and other non-population factors have stronger interpretation.It shows that Shihezi City is in the initial stage of investment driving.The scale and intensity of investment have a great impact on urban expansion,but the investment structure and investment efficiency improvement are not significant.(2)The interaction of various factors is linearly enhanced,which indicates that endogenous factors have significant linear and nonlinear enhancement effects on the interaction of construction land expansion,which conforms to the expansion law in the initial stage of urbanization.Expanding population and economic scale and improving factors and output efficiency are the key to improve mutual benefits.(3)Road traffic development is the most important environmental(background)factor for urban expansion,but its explanatory power is far less than endogenous factors.The influence and interaction of other environmental factors are not obvious,reflecting the urban expansion and environmental conditions of the basin.The impact of the ecological base is relatively weak,and the competitive pressure on scarce or superior resources,factors and locations is relatively small.Oasis cities also have a large form of expansion space and functional expansion potential,and should effe

关 键 词：探测因子 土地城市化 因子探测器 解释力 新疆 石河子市 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济]