基于弹性系数法的鱼田堡至石林公路交通量预测  

Traffic Volume Forecast of Yutianbao to Shilin Road Based on Elasticity-based Model

作　　者：苏丽梅 张瑞刚 SU Li-mei;ZHANG Rui-gang(Transport Bureau of Wansheng Economic and Technological Development Zone,Chongqing 400800,China;Water Authority of Wansheng Economic and Technological Development Zone,Chongqing 400800,China;Key Laboratory of Hydraulic and Waterway Engineering of the Ministry of Education,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400041,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆市万盛经济技术开发区交通局,重庆市400800 [2]重庆市万盛经济技术开发区水务局,重庆市400800 [3]重庆交通大学水利水运工程教育部重点实验室,重庆市400041

出　　处：《北方交通》2019年第8期66-68,共3页Northern Communications

摘　　要：交通量预测分析是道路建设可行性研究的重要环节,将预测的远景交通量划分为趋势交通量和诱增交通量。以重庆市万盛经开区鱼田堡至石林公路为例,基于弹性系数法,对远景交通量进行预测分析和计算,建立了回归预测模型,选用指标高度相关验证了计算的合理性,经综合分析预测,确定了各时期客货运弹性系数值,该交通量预测方法可为类似交通规划提供理论参考。Traffic volume forecast is a very important link in feasibility study of road construction.The traffic volume on the vision is divided into trend part and induced part.Taking Yutianbao to Shilin road as an example,traffic vision is analyzed and calculated based on elasticity-based model.Regression forecast model is put forward,and selection of indicators is highly correlated with the rationality of calculation.Value of each period of passenger and freight elasticity are determined through comprehensive analysis and forecas.The traffic volume forecast method can provide a theoretical reference for the similar traffic planning.

关 键 词：公路运输 交通量预测 弹性系数法 回归模型 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]