城市入境旅游及客源市场的季节性特征研究——基于上海的实证分析  

Exploring Seasonality of Urban Inbound Tourism from the Perspective of Source Market Structure:An Empirical Study on Shanghai, China

作　　者：孙晓东[1] 倪荣鑫 冯学钢[1] SUN Xiaodong;NI Rongxin;FENG Xuegang(School of Business Administration, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学工商管理学院

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2019年第8期25-39,共15页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“邮轮航线规划的影响因素、资源配置与优化策略研究”(71572057);国家社会科学基金重点项目“我国反季旅游市场潜力的区域差异及开发策略研究”(12AJY008)共同资助~~

摘　　要：季节性是入境旅游的典型特征之一,对城市旅游业发展具有重要影响。客源地多样性增加了入境旅游淡旺季平衡的复杂度。深刻理解入境旅游在客源结构方面的季节性特征可以帮助管理部门提出有针对性的市场开发措施,有效应对入境旅游季节性带来的产业失衡问题。文章以上海2004-2016年的入境旅游月度数据为样本,采用季节性调整和聚类分析等方法对上海入境旅游的总体季节性以及不同客源市场的季节性特征进行了研究。首先,采用X-12-ARIMA调整方法对上海入境旅游的总体季节性特征进行了分析。其次,分别对19个客源地的季节性特征进行了识别,并基于淡季和旺季两个维度探讨了不同客源地之间季节性的差异性与相似性。然后,以12个月度季节性因子为维度,采用层次聚类法对19个客源地进行了聚类分析,并对不同类型客源地的季节性成因进行了剖析。最后,提出了上海入境旅游开发的对策与建议。研究发现,虽然不同的客源地在淡旺季分布上存在差异和交叉,但基本与上海的气候舒适度特点相吻合,即旺季主要分布在气候舒适度较高的月份,而淡季月份的气候舒适度则较低。研究结果同样对其他城市入境旅游发展具有启示作用。As an effective means to enhance international awareness, increase foreign exchange earnings and promote development of tourism economy, inbound tourism plays an important role in urban development. Due to influences of natural environment, climatic conditions, social economy and unexpected events, Shanghai inbound tourism has been facing imbalances in number of tourists, tourists expenditure, tourism employment and infrastructure utilization. Seasonality has important impact on inbound tourism of Shanghai. The diversity of tourist source markets of inbound tourism increases the complexity of balancing peak and off seasons. A deep understanding of seasonal characteristics of inbound tourism and relevant source markets could help decision makers to propose more targeted measures that can effectively resolve problems of industrial imbalances.Using monthly data of Shanghai inbound tourism from 2004 to 2016 as a sample, the current article explores seasonality of Shanghai inbound tourism from the perspective of tourist source structure based on methods of seasonal adjustment and cluster analysis. Firstly, the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method is used to analyze seasonal characteristics of overall inbound tourism of Shanghai. Secondly, seasonality of each tourist source area is identified. Then, using 12 monthly seasonal factors as dimensions, the cluster analysis is applied to classify source markets and causes of seasonality for each cluster are analyzed. Finally, implications and suggestions for increasing tourists flow in low seasons are proposed.It is found that inbound tourism of Shanghai shows obvious seasonal fluctuations. Although differences and intersections exist, the distribution of off and peak seasons of inbound tourism basically conforms to characteristics of climate comfort, that is, the peak seasons mainly distribute in months with higher climate comfort, while the off-season climate comfort is lower. Specifically, peak seasons of inbound tourism in Shanghai are April, September, October and Nove

关 键 词：入境旅游 季节性 客源市场 上海 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]