中国华北东北强干旱事件的时空演变特征及重现期分析  

Temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of strong drought events in north and northeast China

作　　者：杨歆雨 李栋梁[1] YANG Xin-yu;LI Dong-liang(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters( CIC-FEMD)/ Key Laboratory ofMeteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education ( KLME) / Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and EnvironmentChange (ILCEC ) , Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2019年第4期810-821,共12页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY(QX)201506001-1)

摘　　要：利用中国华北、东北(110~140°E,34.5~55°N)126个站1901-2015年月尺度标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI-1),去除11月到次年2月(即北方冬季)的数据后,利用聚类分析将研究区域分为东北地区中北部(Ⅰ区)、东北地区南部(Ⅱ区)、华北地区南部(Ⅲ区)、华北地区北部(Ⅳ区)以及华北地区西部(Ⅴ区)5个气候区,利用游程理论在识别单站强干旱事件的基础上,给出区域强干旱事件的识别标准,并与实际干旱事件相比较,检验方法的适用性;分析不同区域强干旱事件年代际的分布特征和演变规律;基于拟合优度最高的Copula函数,以华北西部(Ⅴ区)为例,分析其强干旱事件的重现规律;分析在相同重现期条件下,干旱历时与干旱强度的分布特征。结果表明:(1)区域强干旱事件的识别标准对于中国华北、东北强干旱事件具有较好的适用性。(2)华北北部(Ⅳ区)的强干旱最为严重,且较易发生连旱事件。(3)华北西部(Ⅴ区)的一般性强干旱事件有约5 a^6 a的周期,1929年、1941年和1965年分别有一次特别严重的强干旱事件发生,其重现期分别约为94 a^102 a、93 a^101 a和35 a^41 a。(4)对于2 a、5 a、10 a、20 a、50 a和100 a一遇的强干旱事件,华北北部(Ⅳ区)的强干旱事件最为严重,华北西部(Ⅴ区)次之。In the eastern part of northwest,north China and northeast China,there is a trend of drought,and the trend of drought is the most significant in north China and the eastern part of northwest China.Especially,the drought in north China may remain a long time.Therefore,the study on severe drought events and their recurrence periods is of great importance.Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI-1) from the 126 stations in north and northeast China from 1901 to 2015 [the data from November to February(Winter in northern China) was removed],the study area was divided into 5 climatic zones based on the cluster analysis:The north-central of northeastern China(I),the southern part of northeast China(II),the southern part of north China(III),the northern part of north China(IV),and the western part of north China(V). The identification criteria of regional severe drought events were defined based on the identification of the strong drought events of a single station using run theory.The applicability of the method was verified by comparing it with the actual drought events and the distribution characteristics and evolution law of the strong drought events in different regions were analyzed.Based on the Copula function with the best fitting goodness,the western part of north China(V) was taken as an example to analyze the recurrence law of the strong drought events and the distribution characteristics of drought duration and drought severity under the same recurrence interval conditions.The results show as follows:(1) The identification criteria of regional strong drought events demonstrated good applicability to the strong drought events in NC and the identified major drought events outside the Drought Disaster Dataset enriched the drought disaster database to some extent.(2) In the 1920 s,1940 s and 1960 s,strong drought events tended to increase,and the number of droughts was increased significantly in the 21st century.The northern part of north China and the southern part of northeast China s

关 键 词：区域强干旱事件 华北东北 SPEI指数 重现期 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]