中国区域旅游发展潜力演变格局与影响因素分析  

Evolving pattern and influencing factors of regional tourism development potential in China

作　　者：王伟[1,2] 张佳莹[1,2] 彭东慧 乔家君 WANG Wei;ZHANG Jia-ying;PENG Dong-hui;QIAO Jia-jun(College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, Henan, China;Collaborative Innovation Center of Smarter Tourism, of Central-China Economic Region in Henan Province/ College of Land and Tourism, Luoyang Normal University, Luoyang 471022, Henan, China)

机构地区：[1]河南大学环境与规划学院,河南开封4750041 [2]洛阳师范学院中原经济区智慧旅游河南省协同创新中心/国土与旅游学院,河南洛阳4710222

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2019年第4期953-960,共8页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41671172);河南省优势特色学科建设工程“旅游管理”学科资助

摘　　要：以中国31个省级行政单元为研究区域(不含港澳台)。综合运用熵权法、标准差法、多元线性回归分析等方法对中国区域旅游发展潜力格局演变及主导影响因素分析。结果表明:(1)中国省际间旅游发展潜力呈现出东南高西北低的格局,省际间区域差异随时间变化呈现出缩小-扩大-缩小的趋势。(2)东部地区的旅游发展潜力差异最大,中部、西部和东北部区域的差异整体较小且三大经济区之间的差异也较小。(3)中国区域旅游发展潜力的主导因素包括旅游业总收入、接待旅游总人数、床位数、第三产业从业人数、旅游院校学生数、国内外进出口总额。(4)中国区域旅游发展潜力的四种类型区为:市场需求主导潜力区、区域供给主导潜力区、保障发展主导潜力区、经济支持主导潜力区,依据不同类型区的特征和存在问题,针对性的提出了发展对策与建议。This study takes 31 provincial administrative units in China(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan of China due to statistic data shortage) as the study area.Firstly,we use quantitative methods such as entropy method and standard deviation to quantitatively study the evolution of the regional tourism development potentials of the 31 units,and then use multiple linear regression analysis model and geo-detector model to screen out the leading factors that have a great impact on the potential.The units are grouped into different types of tourism development potential areas with particular development models and recommendations for each type.The results show as follows:(1) The development potential of interprovincial tourism in China presents a trend with high value in the southeast,low value in the northwest and the potential was gradually decreased from the southeast to the northwest.The inter-provincial regional differences show a pattern which was shrunk first,then enlarged and then shrunk again along with the time.(2) The tourism development potential in the eastern region has the largest difference,while the differences in the central,western,and northeast regions are generally small.(3) The leading factors in China’s regional tourism development potential include the total tourism revenue,total number of tourist accommodated,number of beds,number of employees in the tertiary industry,number of students in tourism colleges,and total import and export volume at home and abroad.(4) The four types of the regional tourism development potential are: market demand-led type,regional supply-led type,guaranteed development-led type,and economy support-led type.According to the characteristics of each type,the corresponding development countermeasures and recommendations are proposed.

关 键 词：旅游发展潜力 地理探测器 演变 影响因素 中国 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]