我国2005～2016年森林火灾案件大数据分析  

Big Data Analysis on China’s Forest Fire Cases from 2005 to 2016

作　　者：蒋敬[1,2] 郭会玲 蒋霄然[3] Jiang Jing;Guo Huiling;Jiang Xiaoran(Nanjing Forest Police College, Nanjing 210023;Key Laboratory of National Forest and Grassland Administration on Wildlife Evidence Technology, Nanjing 210023;George Washington University, U.S.A, District of Columbia 20052)

机构地区：[1]南京森林警察学院,南京210023 [2]野生动植物物证技术国家林业和草原局重点实验室,南京210023 [3]乔治华盛顿大学,美国华盛顿特区20052

出　　处：《林业经济》2019年第7期106-109,128,共5页Forestry Economics

摘　　要：对我国2005~2016年森林火灾案件有关大数据分析得知,全国森林火灾行政案件和刑事案件数量的年际变化,表现出相似的变化特征。从月际分布特征看,火灾案件主要集中发生在3~5月份,其中4月份案发量最大;空间分布从省际来看,湖南省位居第一,西藏自治区最低;绝大多数省份行政案件多于刑事案件,而江西省、福建省、广东省和广西壮族自治区刑事案件高于行政案件,7大区的分布情况:行政案件西南地区最高,刑事案件华东地区位居第一,华东地区行政案件略低于刑事案件,华南地区刑事案件比行政案件高出1/3多;刑事案件的犯罪嫌疑人主要是36~59岁、文化程度较低的男性农民,60岁以上的人员所占比例也不容小觑。The big data related to forest fire cases in China from 2005 to 2016 was analyzed in this paper. It can be concluded that national administrative fire cases and criminal fire cases presented similar pattern of change. For characteristics of the monthly distribution, the main fire cases occurred from March to May, with the largest number of cases in April. From the provincial perspective, Hunan Province ranked first, Tibet was the lowest. Most provinces had more administrative cases than criminal cases, while Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong and Guangxi had more criminal cases than administrative case. For the distribution of 7 major regions, administrative cases were the highest in Southwest China, and criminal cases were ranked first in East China. Administrative cases in East China are slightly lower than criminal cases. Criminal cases in South China were more than one- third higher than administrative cases. The criminal suspects in criminal cases were mainly male farmers of 36~ 59 years old with lower education level, and the proportion of people over 60 years old was not to be underesti mated.

关 键 词：森林火灾 案件 统计分析 

分 类 号：F326.23[经济管理—产业经济]