基于大数据的企业金融衍生工具风险管理预警系统及实证检验  

Risk Management Early Warning System and Empirical Test of Enterprise Financial Derivatives Based on Big Data

作　　者：吴健鹏[1] 黄佑军 WU Jian-peng;HUANG You-jun(Foshan Polytechnic,, 528000, Foshan, Guangdong, China;Foshan Open University, 528000, Foshan, Guangdong, China)

机构地区：[1]佛山职业技术学院,广东佛山528000 [2]佛山开放大学,广东佛山528000

出　　处：《特区经济》2019年第7期131-136,共6页Special Zone Economy

基　　金：广东省财政厅基金项目“大数据发展下金融衍生工具风险管理研究——基于财务管理视角”(项目编号2015A22)

摘　　要：大数据分析的方法应用于企业规避财务风险领域主要可以通过网络、数据库等渠道,收集巨量的网络评论数据、企业交易金融产品的数据,建立模型挖掘其内在规律。本文通过综述前期文献的方法,提出构建基于大数据的企业金融衍生工具风险管理预警系统。通过实证分析发现,危机预警指标(DS)在加入大数据信息筛选的信息变量后,预警效果得到改善。企业选择运用金融衍生工具使得危机预警信号有所增强,增加了企业经营风险;企业运用金融衍生工具的选择在网络舆情下放大了危机预警信号,说明网络舆情对企业危机预警有一定的帮助。本研究发现企业运用金融衍生工具确实会增强企业的危机预警信号,而网络舆情使这种特性增强。建议企业在运用金融衍生工具时需要更多考虑利益相关者的意见,至少在社会传播的信息中获得更多的支持,以降低危机预警信号。The method of big data analysis can help enterprises avoid financial risks through a large number of financial product transaction data and network comment data mining. By reviewing the previous literature,this paper proposes to build an early warning system for risk management of enterprise financial derivatives based on Big data.Through empirical analysis, the early warning effect of crisis early warning index(DS) has been improved after adding information variables of large data information screening. Enterprises choose to use financial derivatives to enhance the crisis warning signal and increase business risk. The choice of financial deriva-tives has increased the crisis warning signal under the network public opinion, which shows that the network public opinion is helpful to enterprise crisis warning. This paper finds that the use of financial deriva-tives will indeed enhance the enterprise crisis warning signal, and the network public opinion makes this feature enhanced. It is suggested that enterprises should consider the opinions of stakeholders more when us-ing financial derivatives, at least get more support from the information disseminated by the society, in or-der to reduce the crisis warning signal.

关 键 词：大数据 金融衍生工具 财务管理 风险预警 

分 类 号：F275.1[经济管理—企业管理]