财政支出结构与居民内需扩大:理论分析与跨国证据  

Fiscal Expenditure Structure and Residents’ Domestic Demand Expansion: Theoretical Analysis and Transnational Evidence

作　　者：台航 刘栩畅[2] Tai Hang;Liu Xuchang

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行金融研究所博士后科研流动站 [2]中国宏观经济研究院对外经济研究所

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2019年第7期25-39,135,共16页Macroeconomics

摘　　要：扩大内需尤其是居民消费需求是增强经济增长动力、促进健康发展的重要着力点。从财政角度出发,如何通过优化支出结构来促进居民消费需求的扩大,将关系到经济的长远发展。本文选择居民消费率作为研究消费内需的重要切入点,通过构建内生增长模型探讨了财政支出结构对居民消费率的影响。理论分析结果表明,提高财政生产性支出的比重会对居民消费率产生抑制作用。在实证方面,本文以OECD成员国的跨国面板数据为基础,利用多种计量方法展开实证分析,实证结果较好地支持了理论结论。本文研究结论的政策启示在于,在居民消费率偏低和生产性支出比重过高的现实背景下,通过优化财政支出结构、降低生产性支出占比来刺激居民消费内需的扩大,将有利于实现政府职能转变和增强经济增长的内生动力。Expanding domestic demand, especially consumer demand, is an important focus for enhancing economic growth and promoting healthy development. From a financial point of view, how to optimize the expenditure structure to promote the expansion of consumer demand will be related to the long - term development of the economy. This paper selects the household consumption rate as an important entry point to study the domestic demand of consumption, and explores the impact of fiscal expenditure structure on the household consumption rate by constructing an endogenous growth model. The results of theoretical analysis show that increasing the proportion of fiscal production expenditure will have a restraining effect on household consumption rate. In the empirical aspect, this paper uses the multi-measurement methods of OECD member countries to conduct empirical analysis. The empirical results support the theoretical conclusions. The policy enlightenment of the conclusion of this paper is that in the realistic background of low consumption rate and high proportion of productive expenditure, by optimizing the fiscal expenditure structure and reducing the proportion of productive expenditures to stimulate the expansion of domestic consumption of residents, it will be conducive to realizing the transformation of government functions and enhancing the endogenous driving force for economic growth.

关 键 词：内需扩大 居民消费率 财政支出结构 内生增长模型 跨国实证分析 

分 类 号：F811.4[经济管理—财政学] F113