基于改进挣值方法的项目完工时间、成本预测  

A Study of Project Completion Time and Cost Projection Based on Improved Earned Value Method

作　　者：吉格迪 王一丹 杨康 JI Ge-di;WANGYi-dan;YANG Kang(School of Economics and Management, Inermongolia Industrial University, Hohhot 010051, China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古工业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2019年第3期12-17,共6页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(7166010063);国家软科学研究计划项目(2014GXS4D091);内蒙古自治区高等学校创新团队发展计划项目(NMGIRT1404)

摘　　要：挣值管理(EVM)方法的主要功能是项目执行绩效评价和项目完工趋势预测,该方法在使用时未考虑非关键路线工序对项目预测的影响,此外成本绩效的计算以假定工期不变为前提,上述情况容易造成绩效指标不能准确反映项目进展问题。同时,由于该方法没有考虑工序时间和成本的分布特征,预测项目完工时间和成本的结果为单一的点估计值,准确性无法预估。在构建项目工序的成本/进度经验分布的基础上,对传统EVM指标进行了改进,提出基于蒙特卡洛仿真模拟预测项目完工时间和成本的区间及概率,为项目完工风险估计提供可靠依据。The main function of the earned value management(EVM)method is to assess project performance and forecast completion trend. The method does not take the impact of non-critical route processes into account, and the calculation of cost performance is based on the assumption that the duration does not change. This can easily result in inaccurate reflection of project progress. At the same time,because the method does not consider the distribution characteristics of process time and cost,the predicted project completion time and cost results are a single point estimator,and the accuracy cannot be predicted. This article builds on the cost/progress experience distribution of project processes,improves traditional EVM indicators,predicts project completion time and cost intervals and probabilities on the basis of Monte Carlo simulations. This method comprehensively considers the project uncertainty information and project performance data,and can provide a reliable basis for estimating project completion risk.

关 键 词：挣值管理法 挣得时间法 项目不确定性 蒙特卡洛仿真 项目风险 

分 类 号：TU722[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]