病险水库除险加固功能康复程度评估信息模型及应用  

Information Model for Functional Rehabilitation Evaluation of Dangerous Reservoirs and Its Application

作　　者：韦强军 马福恒[2,3] 李子阳[2,3] 叶伟[3] WEI Qiang-jun;MA Fu-heng;LI Zi-yang;YE Wei(Zhongke Huashui Engineering Management Co Ltd., Zhengzhou 450003, China;Dam Safety Management Centerof Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China;Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China)

机构地区：[1]中科华水工程管理有限公司,河南郑州450003 [2]水利部大坝安全管理中心,江苏南京210029 [3]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2019年第8期47-50,21,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目（51779155）;中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目（Y717006,Y718002）;河南省水利科技攻关项目（GG201656,GG201657）

摘　　要：鉴于水库功能康复程度是决定病险水库除险加固效果的最关键因素,基于信息模型开展其量化评估方法研究。首先在信息获取的基础上建立水库大坝功能康复指标体系,继而区分指标的定性定量、时效非时效关系,并进行信息量化,区分专家主、客观权重确定组合权重,根据时变特征确定指标的静态和动态权重,最后基于Logistic方程的指标安全度曲线构建指标康复等级提升模型,通过信息输出进行水库功能康复程度评估。实例分析结果表明,利用病险水库除险加固功能康复程度评估信息模型可对大坝康复效果进行综合评估,所得结论与实际情况相符。Considering that the rehabilitation degree of reservoir function is the most important factor to determine the reinforcement effect of dangerous reservoir, the quantitative evaluation method was studied based on information model. Firstly, the index system for functional rehabilitation of reservoir dams was established on the basis of information acquisition. Then, the qualitative-quantitative indicators and their aging relationships were distinguished to quantify information. The subjective and objective weights of experts were discriminated to determine the combined weights. Besides, the static and dynamic weights of indicators were determined according to the time-varying characteristics. Finally, based on the index safety curve of Logistic equation, an index rehabilitation upgrading model was derived to evaluate the rehabilitation degree of reservoir functional. Case study shows that the information model for functional rehabilitation evaluation of dangerous reservoirs reinforcement can be used to assess the rehabilitation effect. The conclusion is in accordance with the actual situation.

关 键 词：病险水库 除险加固 功能康复 信息模型 等级提升 

分 类 号：TV697.3[水利工程—水利水电工程]