经济政策不确定性、房地产市场与宏观经济波动——基于GVAR模型的区域差异研究  

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Real estate market and Macroeconomy:Regional Difference Research Based on GVAR Model

作　　者：胡成春 陈迅[1] Hu Chengchun;Chen Xun

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2019年第8期26-36,共11页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“我国商业银行流动性与房地产价格极端关联波动的测度及防范研究”(14BJY188)，项目负责人:花拥军

摘　　要：本文基于我国30个省区市2003年1月-2017年10月的面板数据,应用GVAR模型实证研究了我国经济政策不确定性以及房价上涨对不同区域重要经济变量与房地产市场的影响。研究结果表明:(1)经济政策不确定性的正向冲击对东部与中部地区的产出与投资具有负面影响,但对西部与东北地区产出呈现短期的剌激效应;(2)经济政策不确定性将剌激东部地区房价上涨,但引起中西部地区房价波动,而东北地区房价则呈现下降趋势;(3)房价的正面冲击会进一步刺激房价上涨,并带动投资增长,但其对产出与消费的影响存在区域异质性。This article considering about the spatial linkages and regional difference by apply a global vector autoregressive ( GVAR) model to investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on regional economy and house price, as well as the impacts of house price over 2003M1-2017M10 of 30 provinces in China. The results show that :(1) The positive impact of economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on output and investment in the more economically developed eastern and central regions, but has short-term stimulatory effects on output in the west and northeast regions;(2) The economic policies uncertainty will stimulate house prices rise in the eastern, but will cause house price fluctuations in the central and western regions, while housing prices in the northeast have shown a downward trend.(3) The positive impact of house prices will further stimulate housing prices and drive investment growth, but its impact on actual output and consumption is regional heterogeneity. The study of this paper has important practical significance.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 区域经济 房地产市场 GVAR模型 

分 类 号：F124.8[经济管理—世界经济]