重庆两江新区空间结构演变驱动机制分析与过程模拟  

Analyzing and Modeling the Driving Mechanisms and Processes of the Spatial Structure Changes in Liangjiang New District,Chongqing

作　　者：段非 王钧 蔡爱玲[1,2] 李贵才 DUAN Fei;WANG Junu;CAI Ailing;LI Guicai(School of Urban Planning and Design,Peking University,Shenzhen 518055,China;Laboratory for Urban Future,Peking University (Shenzhen),Shenzhen 518055,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市规划与设计学院,深圳518055 [2]北京大学(深圳)未来城市实验室,深圳518055

出　　处：《地球信息科学学报》2019年第8期1254-1264,共11页Journal of Geo-information Science

基　　金：北京大学(深圳)未来城市实验室铁汉科研开放课题基金(201702);深圳市生态观测研究站项目(SZCG2018161641)

摘　　要：两江新区作为中国第一个内陆开放区,在短时间内经历了高强度开发,其社会经济空间结构演变对于国家新区的发展和规划具有重要意义。两江新区的城市建设用地扩张基本分布在中心城区外围,部分沿交通线向外扩张,并可通过元胞自动机模型对未来建设用地演变趋势进行模拟。本研究基于两江新区的人口数据、建设用地空间分布、道路数据等基本要素分析区域空间结构演变过程,定性与定量相结合研究两江新区空间结构演变的特征与机制并进行多模型模拟。研究结果表明:①从人口、用地、交通等基本要素的时空变化可以看出,两江新区自2010年6月成立至2015年,区域城镇中心体系和空间结构都发生了明显的变化;②政策环境、基础设施、要素成本和集聚效应是企业入驻两江新区的4个主要驱动因素;③两江新区建设用地扩张空间累积阻力值呈同心圆和轴带发展形态,建设用地空间演变基本向空间累积阻力值低的方向和地区扩张;④元胞自动机模型模拟的结果精度在80%以上,能够展示过去5年两江新区空间结构的演变过程和未来该区域空间结构的状况。本研究的结果能够为内陆开放区的优化建设提供科学参考,有助于提高重庆市两江新区开发建设的效益。The inland opening-up areas of China are strategic for leading the development of the central and western provinces.Therefore,optimizing spatial structure is significant for the spatial planning of the inland openin-up areas.This study took China's first inland opening-up area-Liangjiang New District of Chongqing-as a case study,to analyze changes in the regional spatial structure using both qualitative and quantitative methods and multiple dataset (e.g.,population,land use,transportation networks).Moreover,we also simulated the processes of spatial structure changes using multiple spatial models.Results showed that:(1) since the setup of the new district in June,2010,the regional urban system and spatial structure have changed significantly in terms of population,land use,and transportation networks;(2) natural and regional policies,infrastructure development,the prices of economic elements,and economic aggregation were the four main drivers for industries to move to the study area;(3) the built-up land in Liangjiang New District mainly expanded to places with low accumulative resistance values;(4) the simulation results of cellular automata model could show the spatial structure changes of Liangjiang New District over the past five years and the future spatial structure.Our results can provide a scientific basis for optimizing the development of the inland opening-up area and can also help improve the development of Liangjiang New District.This study took the rapid urbanization of a national inland opening-up area as the object,and researched the spatial structure dynamics of Liangjiang New Area in Chongqing.The explosive growth of industrial land agglomerations in a short period of time and the future construction land demand present a significant feature of large-scale land development with high intensity.The study attempted to provide new ideas and methods for solving the problem of different functional positioning of the interior spatial structure of inland opening-up areas,and to guide their development an

关 键 词：内陆开放区 空间结构 重庆两江新区 空间分析与模拟 元胞自动机 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]