A Study of an Industrialization Strategy for China’s Upper-Middle Income Stage  

面向中上等收入阶段的中国工业化战略研究（英文）

作　　者：Huang Qunhui Huang Yanghua He Jun 黄群慧;黄阳华;贺俊;Jiang Feitao;龚华燕(Institute of Industrial Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;the Institute of Industrial Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;不详)

机构地区：[1]Institute of Industrial Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences [2]the Institute of Industrial Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences [2]不详

出　　处：《Social Sciences in China》2019年第3期22-43,共22页中国社会科学（英文版）

摘　　要：When the high-income East Asian economies entered the upper-middle income stage,their long-term growth was sustained by their real manufacturing output share and total factor productivity(TFP).This is a typical pattern that is highly consistent with classical development economics,which sees manufacturing as the engine of economic growth.When China became a middle-income country,its share of real manufacturing output and TFP both fell over the same period,exhibiting a theoretical and empirical tendency toward“premature deindustrialization”that increases the risk of being caught in the middle-income trap.Accelerating China’s development as a manufacturing power,advancing high-tech manufacturing and improving the quality and efficiency of traditional industries are realistic options for the country’s industrial development strategy.东亚高收入经济体在进入中上等收入阶段后,制造业实际占比和全要素生产率都保持长期增长。这些典型事实与经典发展经济学推崇制造业作为经济增长引擎的理论内涵高度一致。中国进入中等收入阶段后,制造业实际占比和全要素生产率同时下降,在理论和经验上都出现了“过早去工业化”的倾向,加大了落入中等收入陷阱的风险。加快建设制造强国,发展先进制造业,提升传统产业发展的质量和效益,是中国当前工业发展战略的现实选择。

关 键 词：middle-income trap premature deindustrialization productivity East Asianexperience 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]