电动自行车交通事故中骑车人伤害程度的影响因素分析  

Factors Affecting Injury Severity of Electric Bike Riders in Road Crashes

作　　者：李成志[1] 李洋[1] 何庆[1] LI Chengzhi;LI Yang;HE Qing(Department of Traffic Management,Beijing Police College,Beijing 102202,China)

机构地区：[1]北京警察学院道路交通系

出　　处：《交通工程》2019年第4期37-43,共7页Journal of Transportation Engineering

基　　金：北京市教委课题(KM20174019002);首都社会安全研究基地项目(CCSS2019WT02)

摘　　要：通过北京市道路交通事故处理系统,搜集了1839起涉及电动自行车的交通事故,应用多项logistic回归模型,分析电动自行车骑车人、事故对方、道路、环境、驾驶行为等7个方面的34个变量对电动自行车骑车人事故伤害程度的影响.结果表明,电动自行车骑车人的年龄、户口性质、是否载人,事故相对方的年龄、性别、人员类型、驾驶资格、交通方式、车辆照明状态、事故责任以及事故发生的道路类型、路侧防护设施、交通信号方式等13个因素对电动自行车骑车人伤害严重程度存在显著影响.A total of 1 839 traffic crashes involving electric bicycles were collected through the Beijing Road Traffic Accident Processing System. The effects of 34 variables from seven aspects such as electric bicycle driver, crash opponent, road, environment and driving behavior on the level of injury severity of electric bicycle riders were analyzed by using the multiple-variate logistic regression model. The results show that 13 factors, such as the rider s age, household registration, presence of bicycle passenger, age, sex, type of the passenger, driving qualification, traffic mode, vehicle lighting status, crash liability, road type, roadside protection facilities and traffic signal mode of the relative party of the crash, are related to the injury severity of electric bicycle riders in traffic crashes. The severity of injuries was also significantly affected by vehicle drivers.

关 键 词：交通事故 电动自行车 伤害程度 影响因素 多项logistic回归 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]