基于PRA的复杂航天多阶段任务系统可靠性分析  

PRA based reliability analysis of complex space phased-mission system

作　　者：李孝鹏 黄洪钟[1] 李福秋 LI Xiaopeng;HUANG Hongzhong;LI Fuqiu(School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,Chengdu 611731,China;China Academy of Aerospace Standardization and Product Assurance,Beijing 100071,China)

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学机械与电气工程学院,四川成都611731 [2]中国航天标准化与产品保证研究院,北京100071

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2019年第9期2141-2147,共7页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51875089)资助课题

摘　　要：在分析复杂航天多阶段任务系统特征和应用传统可靠性分析技术存在的主要问题基础上,简要介绍了概率风险评价(probabilistic risk assessment,PRA)技术,详细说明了PRA综合建模、分析评估和结果分析过程。以某型月球探测器移动分系统为例,进行了PRA技术的工程应用。应用结果表明,PRA技术具有良好的工程适用性,在得到任务可靠性分析结果的同时,能够通过风险重要度排序确定可靠性薄弱环节,支持工程进行针对性的设计改进。Based on the analysis of the characteristics and the main problems of reliability analysis technologies in the space phased-mission system,the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technology is briefly introduced.The integrated modeling,analysis and evaluation,and result analysis processes of PRA are described in detail.Taking the moving subsystem of a lunar probe as an example,the engineering application of PRA technology is carried out.The application results show that the PRA technology has good engineering applicability.The reliability analysis results of the mission can be obtained at the same time,and the weaknesses of the system reliability can be determined by the ranking of risk importance,which can support the engineering design improvement.

关 键 词：概率风险评价 航天多阶段任务系统 可靠性分析 综合建模 不确定性分析 

分 类 号：V57[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]