新形势下中国新型货币政策工具的传导机制与调控效应  

Transmission Mechanism and Regulating Effect of China’s New Type of Monetary Policy Instruments in the New Environment

作　　者：李成[1] 李一帆 刘子扣 韩笑 Li Cheng;Li Yifan;Liu Zikou;Han Xiao(School of Economics and Finance,Xi’an Jiaotong University,X i'an,Shaanxi 710061,China;Shaanxi Branch of China Development Bank,Xifan,Shaanxi 710075 , China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061 [2]国家开发银行陕西省分行,陕西西安710075

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2019年第3期25-35,共11页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(17BJY193)

摘　　要：从经济周期和货币政策目标的角度明确了新形势下中国新型货币政策工具的内涵和功能,基于总量管理和结构优化的视角阐释新型货币政策工具的理论逻辑,分析了新型货币政策工具对传统货币政策传导的改进机制,并运用月度数据构建SVAR模型,通过脉冲响应分类检验具体新型货币政策工具对利率、信贷、投资和经济产出的调控效应,研究发现,新型货币政策工具在传统货币政策的基础上拓展货币政策调控的边际效应与有效性边界,具备"总量管理"和"结构优化"功能,兼具"数量型"和"价格型"的调控特征;新型货币政策工具能够引导市场利率下降,其中中期工具相较短期工具引导利率下降的效果更优;新型货币政策工具在短期有效刺激信贷、投资和经济产出,但是欠缺长期影响能力。From the perspectives of economic cycles and monetary policy objectives,we analyzed the connotations and functions of China’ s new type of monetary policy instruments in the new environment. From the perspectives of total quantity management and structure optimization,we shed light on the theoretical logic of emerging monetary policy instruments and analyzed the mechanism by which new monetary policy instruments have improved the transmission of traditional monetary policies. Using an SVAR model based on monthly data,we investigated the regulating effect of different sorts of new monetary policy instruments on interest rates,credit,investment,and economic output through impulse-response analysis. The findings are summarized as follows: 1) based on traditional monetary policies,new monetary policy instruments have extended the marginal effects and effectiveness boundaries of monetary policy regulation,provided functions such as total quantity management and structure optimization,and possessed the characteristics of both quantity-oriented regulation and price-oriented regulation;2) new monetary policy instruments could lead market interest rates to decline,or to be more specific,medium-term instruments could lead market interest rates to decline more significantly than short-term instruments;3) new monetary policy instruments could effectively stimulate credit,investment,and economic output in the short term,but could not do so in the long term.

关 键 词：新型货币政策工具 经济周期 总量管理 结构优化 SVAR模型 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]