现货市场环境下交易模式对光伏电站投资的影响研究  

Impact of Trading Modes on PV Plant Investment Under Electricity Spot Market Environment

作　　者：郭红霞[1,2] 高瑞[1,2] 张节谭[3] 郭树峰 杨立斌 张臻 GUO Hongxia;GAO Rui;ZHANG Jietan;GUO Shufeng;YANG Libin;ZHANG Zhen(School of Electric Power, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, Guangdong Province, China;Guangdong Key Laboratory of Clean Energy Technology (South China University of Technology), Guangzhou 510640, Guangdong Province, China;Qinghai Province Key Laboratory of Grid-connected Photovoltaic (PV) Technology (State Grid Qinghai Electric Power Company), Xining 810008, Qinghai Province, China;Shenzhen Hupzon Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518110, Guangdong Province, China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学电力学院,广东省广州市510640 [2]广东省绿色能源技术重点实验室(华南理工大学),广东省广州市510640 [3]青海省光伏发电并网技术重点实验室(国网青海省电力公司),青海省西宁市810008 [4]深圳合纵能源技术有限公司,广东省深圳市518110

出　　处：《电网技术》2019年第8期2674-2681,共8页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61104181);广东省科技计划项目(2016B020245001);国网青海省电力公司科技项目“基于大数据的青藏高原气象预报与太阳能资源综合评估技术”(52280716000T)~~

摘　　要：现货市场环境下集中式光伏电站不同交易模式对其收益产生巨大影响,使其投资决策变得更加复杂。因此,针对现货市场中光伏电站3种交易模式,利用投资评估指标法和敏感度分析法研究其投资收益。首先分析了光伏电站3种不同交易模式的特性,建立不同交易模式下的收益模型;其次采用动态投资回收期、内部收益率、效益成本比等指标对比分析不同模式下光伏电站的投资回收效果,并采用敏感度分析法研究不同交易模式下电站对其他收益来源的依赖性;最后针对不同资源区的光伏电站进行案例分析。结果表明,在集中式现货市场下,签订中长期差价合约可以使投资评估指标最佳并减少政府补贴、建设成本以及电价波动的敏感度,减低对其他收入来源的依赖性,抵御价格波动风险,保证投资经济性。Under spot electricity market, volatility of real-time price makes the decision-making of photovoltaic (PV) plant investment more complicated. This paper uses investment evaluation indicators and sensitivity analysis to study investment returns based on three trading modes of PV plants. Firstly, the paper analyzes the characteristics of the three trading modes and corresponding income modes. Then, the investment return indicators, including dynamic investment payback period, internal return rate and benefit-to-cost ratio are used to analyze the investment return, and sensitivity analysis is performed to study the dependence of PV plants on other sources of revenue under different trading modes. Lastly, three PV plants in different resource areas are chosen for case study, showing that signing medium-and long-term contract for difference can shorten investment return period and effectively reduce sensitivity to government subsidy, construction cost and price fluctuation, thus reducing dependence on other incomes in power pool, resisting risk of price fluctuations and ensuring investment economy.

关 键 词：交易模式 收益模型 投资评估指标 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]