经贸新常态下我国产业结构变化的就业效应研究——奥肯定律在中国失灵之谜  

Employment Effect of Industrial Structure Change in China under the New Normal State of Economy and Trade——The Mystery of Failure of Okun’s Law in China

作　　者：王可[1,2] 傅萍婷 田艳[2] WANG Ke;FU Ping-ting;TIAN Yan

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学,陕西西安710000 [2]北京理工大学珠海学院,广东珠海519080

出　　处：《华侨大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2019年第4期91-103,共13页Journal of Huaqiao University(Philosophy & Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金一般项目“应对新科技革命和产业革命的外贸发展策略研究”(71741020);国家发展和改革委员会发展规划司委托项目“十三五”时期经济结构战略调整的就业效应研究”(SK20130);陕西省重点研发计划“中国与其主要贸易伙伴国双边贸易自由化的就业效应研究”(2018SF-353);西安市科学技术局项目“陕西自贸区(西安)相关度研究、西安自贸区战略目标功能定位和产业结构问题研究”(2017111SF/RK005-8);西安交通大学自贸院项目“陕西(西安)自贸港设想”(sk2018007))

摘　　要：经贸"新常态"实质为全球经济与贸易进入了高效率、低成本、可持续的中高速增长阶段。通过对我国GDP增长率与城镇就业率相关性进行数据分析,发现中国GDP增长率与失业率情况与奥肯定律之间存在相当的偏离,通过实证研究揭示奥肯定律在我国失灵的原因:一是我国三大产业结构的变化对就业的冲击,服务业的就业带动效应大于制造业,制造业的就业带动效应大于农业,但服务业吸纳就业的能力正在缩小;二是根据经济增长和通货膨胀的就业冲击效应,经济增长速度和通货膨胀都会对就业起到正向促进作用;三是对投资与消费的就业效应进行了比照,同时对中小企业与大型企业吸纳就业能力也进行了比照,发现消费所产生的就业效应大于投资,中小企业的就业带动大于大型企业。In essence,the"new normal"of economic and trade has brought the global economy and trade into a stage of medium-high speed growth featuring high efficiency,low cost and sustainability. By analyzing the correlation between GDP growth rate and urban employment rate in China,it is found that there is a considerable deviation between GDP growth rate and unemployment rate in China and Okun’s law. Empirical research reveals the reasons for the failure of Okun’s Law in China: First,the impact of the changes in China’s three major industrial structures on employment,the employment-driven effect of the service industry is greater than that of the manufacturing industry,and the employment-driven effect of the manufacturing industry is greater than that of agriculture,but the ability of the service industry to absorb employment is shrinking. Second,according to the employment shock effect of economic growth and inflation,both the speed of economic growth and inflation will play a positive role in promoting employment. Third,the employment effect of investment and consumption is compared. At the same time,the employment ability of small and medium-sized enterprises and large enterprises is also compared. It is found that the employment effect of consumption is greater than that of investment,and the employment effect of small and medium-sized enterprises is greater than that of large enterprises.

关 键 词：奥肯定律 经济增长 失业率 

分 类 号：F249[经济管理—劳动经济]