基于GMM及多点线性半不变量法的电-热互联综合能源系统概率潮流分析  

Probabilistic power flow analysis of integrated electricity-heat energy system based on GMM and multi-point linear cumulant methond

作　　者：廖星星 吴奕 卫志农[1] 胡伟 杨梓俊 孙国强[1] 臧海祥[1] LIAO Xingxing;WU Yi;WEI Zhinong;HU Wei;YANG Zijun;SUN Guoqiang;ZANG Haixiang(College of Energy and Electrical Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210024,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学能源与电气学院,江苏南京211100 [2]国网江苏省电力有限公司,江苏南京210024

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2019年第8期55-62,共8页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51877071);国网江苏省电力有限公司科技项目(区域综合能源系统协同运行与优化调控关键技术研究及系统研发)(J2019024)~~

摘　　要：提出了一种计及相关性的基于高斯混合模型(GMM)的多点线性半不变量法电-热互联综合能源系统概率潮流(PPF)计算方法。构建了电-热互联综合能源系统潮流模型,采用GMM建立电-热互联综合能源系统源荷不确定模型,针对其输出变量的不确定性提出了基于半不变量法的电-热互联综合能源系统PPF计算方法,定量计算出相关输出状态变量的概率密度函数。由于电-热互联综合能源系统中存在非线性问题导致线性化误差增大,采用多点线性的方法来克服这一难题。并且所提PPF方法进一步考虑了电-热负荷之间的相关性。最后,采用Cornish-Fisher级数展开拟合状态变量概率分布,在改进的巴厘岛电-热互联综合能源系统算例中验证了所提方法的快速性、准确性和实用性。A multi-point linear cumulant method based on GMM(Gaussian Mixture Model)considering correlation is put forward to calculate the integrated electricity-heat energy system PPF(Prababilistic Power Flow).The power flow model of integrated electricity-heat energy system is constructed,and the sourceload uncertainty model of the system is proposed using GMM.In view of the uncertain output variables,the calculation method of integrated electricity-heat energy system PPF based on cumulant method is proposed,thus the probability density functions of related output state variables are calculated quantitatively.The multi-point linear method is adopted to overcome the large linearization error owing to the nonlinear problem of integrated electricity-heat energy system.Moreover,the proposed PPF method further considers the correlation between electric and thermal loads.Finally,the Cornish-Fisher series expansion is used to fit the probability distribution of state variables.The proposed method is proved to be fast,accurate and practical in the modified Bali integrated electricity-heat energy system case.

关 键 词：电-热互联综合能源系统 高斯混合模型 概率潮流 半不变量法 多点线性 相关性 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]