基于芝加哥法的桂林市短历时暴雨特征分析  

Analysis of Short-duration Rainstorm Characteristics in Guilin City Based on Chicago Method

作　　者：周绍毅 苏志 廖雪萍 何如 Zhou Shaoyi;Su Zhi;Liao Xueping;He Ru(Guangxi Meteorological Service Center,Nanning 530022;Guangxi Meteorological Society,Nanning 530022)

机构地区：[1]广西气象服务中心,南宁530022 [2]广西气象科学研究所,南宁530022

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2019年第2期25-29,共5页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：广西气象局气象科研项目（桂气科2017TG02）;广西气象服务中心科研项目（201809)

摘　　要：利用桂林气象站1957-2014年逐分钟降雨资料,运用线性倾向估计、M-K突变检验方法分析了桂林市短历时暴雨变化特征,采用芝加哥法推算了重现期2a,历时30-180min的暴雨雨型。结果表明:(1)桂林市各短历时最大降雨量均呈增加趋势,30-90min最大降雨量增加趋势较为显著,120-180min最大降雨量增加趋势不明显;(2)各历时前10个降雨极值在1986-2014年间出现的个数大于1957-1985年间,降雨极端值均出现在1978年以后,各历时年最大降雨量变化均未有明显的突变;(3)桂林市短历时暴雨雨型为单峰型,30-90min雨峰位置降雨量随着历时的增加而增加,90-150min雨峰位置降雨量随着历时的增加先减少后增加,雨峰位置基本处于整场降雨过程的1/3分位;(4)30min和60min降雨过程的累积降雨量一开始出现激增变化,随后增速趋于平缓,历时90-180min降雨过程的累积降雨量经过平缓增加-激烈增加-平缓增加的过程。Based on the minute-by-minute rainfall data of Guilin meteorological station from 1957 to 2014, the variation characteristics of short-duration rainstorm in Guilin City are analyzed by linear tendency estimation and M-K mutation test. The rainstorms have a 2a recurrence period and last 30-180 min are calculated by Chicago method. The results show that:(1) the maximum precipitation in each short duration of Guilin City shows an increasing trend, the increasing trend of a duration ranges from 30 to 90 minutes is more significant, while 120 -180 minute duration is not obvious;(2) the extremum number of the top 10 rainfall duration in 1986-2014 is greater than that in 1957-1985;the extreme precipitation values all appear after 1978, and there was no abrupt change in the annual maximum precipitation.(3) The short-duration rainstorm pattern in Guilin is single-peak, the peak position of the rainfall duration between 30 and 90 minutes increases with the increase of duration;when the duration ranges from 90 to 150 minutes, the peak position decreases first and then increases with the increase of duration, and the location of the rain peak is basically 1/3 of the whole rainfall process;(4) the cumulative rainfall of the 30-minute and 60-minute rainfall process changes sharply at the beginning, and then the growth rate tends to be flat. The cumulative rainfall ranges from 90 to 180 minutes shows a process of gentle increase-intense increase-gentle increase.

关 键 词：芝加哥法 短历时 雨型 桂林市 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]