构建中国-欧盟自由贸易区的经济增长和福利效应——基于全球动态一般均衡模型的分析  

The Economic Growth and Welfare Effects of Constructing China-EU FTA ——Analysis Based on Global Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

作　　者：杨军[1] 董婉璐 胡继亮[2] YANG Jun;DONG Wan-lu;HU Ji-liang

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 [2]华中师范大学经济与工商管理学院

出　　处：《产经评论》2019年第4期122-135,共14页Industrial Economic Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目“全球价值链与中国产业升级研究”(项目编号:71733002,项目主持人:王直);国家自然科学基金资助项目“重大冲击和变化对中国-全球农业影响模拟模型的研究和开发”(项目编号:71761147004,项目主持人:吕开宇);对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(项目编号:CXTD9-02,项目主持人:杨军)

摘　　要：中国与欧盟在世界经济上占有举足轻重的地位,双方任何形式的贸易合作都将对世界经济产生重要影响。推进中国-欧盟自贸区构建是我国深化对外开放和强化国际合作的重大举措,采用全球动态一般均衡模型,考虑全球投资分配和资本积累机制、关税削减和非关税壁垒降低因素,从宏观和产业等层面系统地评估中国-欧盟自贸区构建对经济发展的影响。结果显示:中国-欧盟自贸区可以显著促进中欧经济增长和经济福利提高;双边贸易及其依存度将得到提升,有利于比较优势的发挥,促使中欧产业结构发生深刻调整。此外,中国-欧盟自贸区将显著影响全球贸易流向和格局,有助于推动全球贸易开放和经济一体化。In April 2014, Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward the initiative of establishing the China-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) during his visit to Europe. Due to the pivotal status of China and EU in the world economy, any FTA between the two sides will have a significant impact on the world economy and trade. This study adopts the global dynamic general equilibrium model to systematically evaluate the economic impact of the FTA between China and EU from macro and industrial perspectives. Compared with the existing researches, this paper adopts the dynamic model method, which fully considers the global investment allocation and capital accumulation mechanism. Compared with the static model, the evaluation results are more reasonable and accurate. At the same time, not only the tariff reduction is considered, but also the impact of the reduction of non-tariff barriers (NTM) is analyzed. The study shows that the FTA can significantly promote the economic growth and the improvement of economic welfare in China and EU. Bilateral trade and trade dependency will be greatly enhanced, which will help exploit the bilateral advantages to the full and promote profound adjustments of industrial structures. In addition, the FTA between China and EU will significantly influence the flow and pattern of world trade and contribute to the promotion of global trade openness and economic integration.

关 键 词：中国-欧盟自由贸易区 动态均衡模型 经济影响 全球贸易流向 非关税壁垒 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]