烤烟产区气候评价中综合赋权法的应用  

Application of Comprehensive Weighting Method in Climatic Evaluation of Flue-cured Tobacco Growing Areas

作　　者：褚旭 范幸龙[1] 杜坚[1] 魏建荣[1] 张建强 杨康 汤洋[1] 马志远[1] 胡钟胜[1] CHU Xu;FAN Xinglong;DU Jian;WEI Jianrong;ZHANG Jianqiang;YANG Kang;TANG Yang;MA Zhiyuan;HU Zhongsheng(China Tobacco Jiangsu Industrial Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210019,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏中烟工业有限责任公司

出　　处：《中国烟草科学》2019年第4期14-21,共8页Chinese Tobacco Science

基　　金：江苏中烟工业有限责任公司科技项目“基于苏产卷烟品牌需求的滇西基地后备品种资源筛选与评价”（Y040201915）

摘　　要：在烤烟产区气候评价中,为了探索更加合理的指标赋权方法,采集云南12个典型烤烟产区的气候数据,利用单一和综合赋权法评价气候综合状况,并对赋权及评价结果进行对比分析。结果表明:(1)12个烤烟产区大田期均温在19.23~20.58℃,处于适宜水平,成熟期平均降水量达290.45mm,雨量偏多,大田日照时数充足;(2)单一赋权法中权重系数最大的指标分别是旺长期降水量0.173(层次分析法),旺长期均温0.143(标准差法),旺长期均温0.195(熵权法),单一赋权法的方差平均值(R^2mean)为2.36;(3)综合赋权法中权重系数最大和最小的指标均为旺长期均温(0.150、0.152、0.149)和全年日照时数(0.107、0.107、0.108),R^2mean为0.44;(4)3种综合赋权法中,基于离差平方和的综合赋权法评价得分差距更大,基于博弈论的综合赋权法评价结果间相关性更好,基于单位化约束的综合赋权法评价得分的分值更高。较之单一赋权方法,综合赋权法的权重差异更小,评价结果的收敛性更好,能够在烤烟产区气候评价中更加合理地对不同气象指标进行赋权。In order to explore a more reasonable index weighting method in climatic evaluation of different flue-cured tobacco growing areas,climatic data of 12 typical tobacco growing areas in Yunnan were collected,evaluated by single and comprehensive weighting methods and the results of weighting and evaluation were compared.The results showed that:(1) The results of descriptive statistics for climatic factors at 12 tobacco growing areas showed that the average temperature in the field period was between 19.23 and 20.58 degrees celsius,which was appropriate.The average rainfall in the mature period was at a high level of 290.45 mm,and the sunshine hours in the field were sufficient.(2) The highest weighting coefficients in three single weighting methods were 0.173 for the precipitation in the period of vigorous growth index in AHP,0.143 for the average temperature in the period of vigorous growth index in standard deviation method and 0.195 for the average temperature in the period of vigorous growth index in entropy method.And the R^2 mean was 2.36.(3) The highest and lowest weighting coefficients were the average temperature in the period of vigorous index (0.150,0.152 and 0.149) and the sunshine hours for whole year index (0.107,0.107 and 0.108) for all the three comprehensive weighting methods.And the R^2 mean was 0.44.(4) The comprehensive weighting method based on the sum of deviation squares had larger gaps among evaluation scores,and the comprehensive weighting method based on game theory had better correlations among evaluation results,while the comprehensive weighting method based on unit constraints had higher evaluation scores.After combining the three comprehensive weighting methods,the weight difference among climatic indices was less,and the evaluation results had better convergence.Comprehensive weighting method was suitable for the index weighting research in climatic evaluation of flue-cured tobacco growing areas.

关 键 词：烤烟产区 气候评价 单一赋权法 综合赋权法 

分 类 号：S572.01[农业科学—烟草工业]