基于系统动力学的水资源承载力可持续发展评估——以重庆市为例  

Assessment of sustainable development of water resources carrying capacity based on system dynamics model: case of Chongqing City

作　　者：杨光明[1] 时岩钧 杨航[1] 张帆[1] YANG Guangming;SHI Yanjun;YANG Hang;ZHANG Fan(School of Management, Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing 400054, China)

机构地区：[1]重庆理工大学管理学院

出　　处：《人民长江》2019年第8期6-13,51,共9页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(16BGL122);重庆市教委科学技术研究项目(KJ1709213);重庆市研究生科研创新项目(CYS18316)

摘　　要：水资源承载力的可持续发展不仅是重庆市城市建设及生态安全的基础,也是重庆市社会经济协调发展的关键保障之一。在对重庆市工业状况、人口规模、自然环境进行分析的基础上,将模糊数学隶属度与系统动力学相结合,构建了水资源承载力可持续发展的指标评价体系及系统动力学模型,设计了正常发展、经济优先、环境优先、绿色发展4种水资源承载力情景,并对各方案下的水资源承载力可持续发展能力进行动态评价与仿真预测。研究结果表明:在绿色发展情景下,水中COD含量、固体废弃物存量、废水排放率等负面指标都处于较低的水平;相比其他3种方案,绿色发展模式对于重庆市水资源承载力发展有着更好的普适性与拓展性。因此,在产业结构升级的同时,提高固废处理水平,加大水资源处理技术的投入,加强生态环境建设,降低废水排放率,是重庆市水资源承载力可持续发展的保障。该模型及其评价指标适用性较强,研究结果可为重庆市水资源承载力评价提供理论参考。The sustainable development of water resources carrying capacity is not only the foundation of the urban construction and the ecological security for Chongqing City, but also one of the key guarantees of the coordinated development of economy and society. According to the analysis of the city’s natural environment, industries, population scale, we established an index evaluation system for the sustainable development of water resources carrying capacity and the system dynamics model by combining fuzzy membership degree with system dynamics. In order to conduct a dynamic evaluation, we simulate and predict the sustainability of water resources carrying capacity under four scenarios, i.e. normal development, economic priority, environment priority and green development. The results show that under the green development scenario, negative indicators such as COD content, solid waste stock and discharge rate of waste water are relatively low. Compared with the other three scenarios, green development mode is more applicable and extensible. Therefore, in order to ensure the sustainable development of water resources carrying capacity in Chongqing City, in addition to upgrading its industry structure, it is also important to improve solid waste treatment level, increase investment in water resources treatment technology, reinforce ecological environment, and reduce discharge rate of waste water. The system dynamics model and its evaluation indexes are rather applicable in practice, which can provide a theoretical reference for water resource carrying capacity evaluation in Chongqing City.

关 键 词：水资源承载能力 水资源可持续发展 评价指标 资源优化配置 绿色发展 生态安全 环境保护 SD模型 系统动力学 重庆市 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]