A Cumulative Prospect Theory Based Counterterrorism Resource Allocation Method under Interval Values  

作　　者：Bingfeng Ge Xiaoxiong Zhang Xiaolei Zhou Yuejin Tan 

机构地区：[1]College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073, China [2]The Sixty-third Research Institute, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing 210007, China

出　　处：《Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering》2019年第4期478-493,共16页系统科学与系统工程学报（英文版）

基　　金：This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 71690233, 71501182, and 71571185. The authors would like to thank the Guest Editors and anonymous referees for furnishing comments and constructive suggestions that improved the quality of this paper.

摘　　要：Strategic resource allocation into decision-making model plays a valuable role for the defender in mitigating damage and improving efficiency in military environments.In this paper,we develop a defensive resource allocation model based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT),which considers terrorists' psychological factors of decision-making in reality.More specifically,we extend existing models in the presence of multiple attributes and terrorists' deviations from rationality using a multi-attribute cumulative prospect theory.In addition,interval values are used to cope with uncertainties regarding gain and loss.Comparative studies are also carried out to demonstrate the differences among minmax,Nash equilibrium (NE),and traditional probability risk analysis (PRA) strategies.Results show that the defender's optimal defensive resource allocation will change along with terrorists' behaviors and the proposed model makes more sense compared with other traditional resource allocation strategies.

关 键 词：COUNTERTERRORISM RESOURCE ALLOCATION CUMULATIVE PROSPECT theory multiple attributes INTERVAL value 

分 类 号：N[自然科学总论]