通货膨胀惯性对货币政策调控效果有影响吗?  

Does Inflation Inertia Affect the Control Effect of Monetary Policy?

作　　者：王治政[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行杭州中心支行

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2019年第8期57-62,共6页Journal Of Financial Development Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“基于社会融资规模视角的中国货币政策调控创新研究”(17CJL009)

摘　　要：通货膨胀惯性指通货膨胀受到随机扰动的冲击之后偏离其均衡状态所持续的时间,是各国通货膨胀普遍存在的一种重要特征。本文在构建一个包含通货膨胀惯性的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型(NKDSGE)的基础上,引入价格型和数量型货币政策规则,研究了通货膨胀惯性对货币政策调控效果的影响及福利损失问题。研究发现通货膨胀惯性在提高了货币政策促增长的调控效果的同时,也弱化了货币政策反通货膨胀的调控效果;政策冲击导致的福利损失随着通货膨胀政策目标权重的增加不断降低。研究表明央行在对政策调控的力度和节奏把握过程中,通货膨胀惯性是需要考虑的一个重要因素,并且无论价格型还是数量型货币政策,央行给予通货膨胀目标较高的权重,均可以降低政策冲击导致的福利损失。Inflation inertia refers to the time that inflation deviates from its equilibrium state after being shocked by random perturbations. It is an important feature of inflation in all countries. Based on the construction of a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (NK-DSGE) with inflation inertia,this paper introduces price and quantity monetary policy rules to study the effects of inflation inertia on monetary policy and welfare loss. The study finds that inflation inertia not only improves the control effect of monetary policy on promoting growth,but also weakens the control effect of monetary policy on anti-inflation. The welfare loss caused by policy shocks decreases with the increase of the weight of inflation policy objectives. The research shows that inflation inertia is an important factor to be considered in the process of grasping the intensity and rhythm of policy control by the central bank. Whether price or quantity monetary policy,the higher weight given by the central bank to inflation target can reduce welfare losses caused by policy shocks.

关 键 词：货币政策 一般均衡 福利损失 通货膨胀惯性 校准 

分 类 号：F820.1[经济管理—财政学]