城镇化、人力资本与对外贸易——基于var模型实证研究  

Urbanization, Human Capital and Foreign Trade——An Empirical Study Based on var Model

作　　者：徐鑫[1] 杨洋[2] 吴秋月[1] 李晓[1] 史悦[1] XU Xin;YANG Yang;WU Qiu-yue;LI Xiao;SHI Yue(School of Mathematics Science,Anhui University,Hefei Anhui 230601;Economics School,Anhui University,Hefei Anhui 230601)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学数学科学学院,安徽合肥230601 [2]安徽大学经济学院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《巢湖学院学报》2019年第3期14-22,共9页Journal of Chaohu University

基　　金：安徽大学“211”基金项目(项目编号：2009QN029B);安徽省教育厅资助项目(项目编号：KJ2011Z018);安徽省自然科学基金面上项目(项目编号：1708085MF163);国家自然科学基金项目(项目编号：11401002);教育部人文社科基金项目(项目编号：11YJA870032);安徽省质量工程研究项目研究成果(项目编号：2016jyxm0046)

摘　　要：自改革开放以来,中国在众多领域取得了举世瞩目的成就。其中,中国对外贸易也跟随发展潮流,在当今世界占有越来越多的话语权。以安徽省作为研究对象,首先剖析安徽省对外贸易的现状以及存在的问题,再者根据安徽省1981—2015年的时间序列数据,引入人力资本变量,通过构建var模型对城镇化、人力资本以及对外贸易这三个变量进行动态计量分析。根据脉冲响应函数方差分解模型结果表明,城镇化相对于人力资本对于对外贸易有着更深层次的影响。当给予城镇化一个正向冲击后,有利于促进安徽省出口贸易的发展,但是对于进口贸易,城镇化以及人力资本的影响微乎其微。最终根据实证分析的结论,提出加大教育经费投入、完善城市基础设施建设、扩大城镇就业机会的政策建议,以此提升安徽省对外贸易水平。Since the reform and opening up policy,China has made remarkable achievements in many fields. China's foreign trade has also followed the trend of development,gaining more and more discourse power. In this paper,Anhui province was selected as the research object. Firstly,the current situation and existing problems about Anhui province's foreign trade are analyzed. Then,based on the time series data in 1981-2015 of Anhui province,we construct var model to analyze the influence of human capital and urbanization on foreign trade. According to the impulse response function variance decomposition model,the results show that urbanization has a deeper impact on foreign trade than human capital. The positive impact on urbanization is good for the development of export trade. But for import trade,the human capital and urbanization play an unimportant role. Finally,according to the result of empirical analysis,in order to improve the level of foreign trade,the government should increase investment in education,improve urban infrastructure construction and urban employment opportunities.

关 键 词：城镇化 人力资本 对外贸易 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F126.2[经济管理—世界经济]