农村劳动力外流对我国粮食产量影响的实证研究  

The Empirical Research on The Influence of Rural Labor Outflow on China’s Grain output

作　　者：杜延军[1] 李乡玉 Du Yanjun;Li Xiangyu(College of Economics, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《粮食科技与经济》2019年第7期24-27,76,共5页Food Science And Technology And Economy

基　　金：江苏省高校品牌专业建设工程资助项目(PPZY2015B103)

摘　　要：粮食是最基础、最重要的生活、生产物资,在国家经济社会发展中发挥着不可替代的作用。粮食安全与金融安全、能源安全一道被列为国家经济发展“三大安全”。我国是一个农业人口大国,近年来,随着我国经济的高速发展,出现了农村劳动力大量外流的现象。本文基于1990-2017年数据,实证分析农村劳动力外流对我国粮食产量及粮食安全的影响,结果表明农村劳动力外流对我国粮食产量没有显著影响,而农业技术进步、耕地面积与化肥使用量对粮食产量影响显著。在此基础上,文章提出了维护我国粮食安全的相关对策。Food is the most basic and important life and production material,playing an irreplaceable role in the country’seconomic and social development.Food security,along with financial security and energy security,is listed as the "three ma-jor security" of national economic development.China is a large agricultural population country.In recent years,with the rap-id development of China’s economy,there has been a large outflow of rural labor.This paper based on the data from 1990 to2017 empirically analyses whether the outflow of rural labor affects China’s grain output and food security.The results showthat the outflow of rural labor has no significant impact on grain production in China,but the progress of agricultural technol-ogy,cultivated land area or fertilizer usage has significant impact on grain production.Finally,countermeasures are put for-ward to ensure food security in China on the basis of the previous text.

关 键 词：农村劳动力外流 剩余劳动力 粮食产量 粮食安全 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济] F323.6