决策失误归因中“情报失察”泛化现象检视  

A Review of the Generalization of "Intelligence Failure" in the Attribution of Decision Mistakes

作　　者：陈德 刘杰 Chen De;Liu Jie(Criminal Justice School, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073;Law Criminal Justice School, East China University of Political Science and Law, Shanghai 201620)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学刑事司法学院,武汉430073 [2]华东政法大学刑事司法学院,上海201620

出　　处：《情报杂志》2019年第9期20-23,13,共5页Journal of Intelligence

摘　　要：[目的/意义]情报失察是决策失误的重要但非唯一影响因素,在对决策失误归因时,应避免“情报失察”的泛化和滥用。对此进行研究有利于客观认识和界定两者之间的关系。[方法/过程]在阐明决策视域下情报研究现状的基础上,以实际案例指出决策失误并非皆源自于“情报失察”。指出思维模式和结果偏差是“情报失察”泛化的原因。最后对情报失察与决策失误之间的关系进行再分解,进而提出可能的归因路径。[结果/结论]决策中的目标替代,执行本身的“决策”属性,决策自身的“政治”博弈,都可能使得决策失误,宜通过确立相互竞争的分析思路,科学设置情报分析以及决策评价体系等来合理判断失误原因。[Purpose/Significance]Intelligence failure is an important factor in decision-making mistakes, but it is not the only influencing factor. When attributed to decision-making mistakes, the generalization and abuse of "information failure" should be avoided. Studying this will help to objectively understand and define the relationship between the two.[Method/Process]Based on the clarification of the status quo of intelligence research in the perspective of decision-making, it is pointed out in practical cases that decision-making mistakes are not all derived from "information failure". Furthermore, it is pointed out that the mode of thinking and the outcome bias are the reasons for the generalization of "information failure". Finally, the relationship between intelligence oversight and decision mistakes is decomposed,then proposing possible attribution paths.[Result/Conclusion]The goal substitution in decision-making, the implementation of its own "decision" attribute, and the "political" game of decision-making itself may make the decision-making mistakes. It is better to judge the mistakes by establishing competing analytical ideas, scientifically setting up intelligence analysis and decision-making evaluation system.

关 键 词：决策失误 情报失察 失误归因 结果偏差 

分 类 号：G350[文化科学—情报学]