结构性去杠杆进程中中国家庭杠杆率攀升对居民消费的门槛效应  

The Threshold Effect of China’s Household Leverage Rate on the Consumption Expenditure of Urban and Rural Residents in the Process of Structural De-Leverage

作　　者：徐旭初[1] 王鹏[1] Xu Xuchu;Wang Peng(Anhui University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《哈尔滨师范大学自然科学学报》2019年第3期58-65,共8页Natural Science Journal of Harbin Normal University

摘　　要：运用西南财经大学中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)的微观数据,2013~2017年各省、直辖市、自治区共31个地区的截面数据,以及各地区人民银行中心支行获得的宏观数据,构建以家庭杠杆率为门槛变量的门槛面板数据模型,实证分析了中国家庭部门加杠杆对于居民消费支出的影响.结果显示,家庭部门加杠杆会增加居民的消费支出,并且在家庭部门加杠杆的过程中,家庭杠杆率对于居民消费支出具有门槛效应.同时,居民的可支配收入与居民的消费支出具有正比例关系.另外,城镇化率作为描述一个地区经济状况的重要指标,也会对居民消费支出产生正向作用;而住户部门贷款的上升则会降低居民的消费需求.因此,在鼓励居民加杠杆刺激消费,拉动内需的同时,不能忽视加杠杆给家庭部门带来的信用风险与流动性风险.政府以及金融监管部门要尽早建立一套完整的符合中国实际的家庭风险测评与风险防控体系,为宏观调控和金融监管提供完备的信息支持与保障.Through the CHFS southwestern university of finance and economics China family financial investigation of micro data,2013 ~ 2017,a total of 31 provinces,municipalities directly under the central government,autonomous region area of cross section data,as well as regional central sub-branch of the people's bank of macroeconomic data,a family leverage for threshold variable threshold panel data model is built,the household sector and leverage effect on the consumer spending is analyzed.The results show that the increase of household leverage will increase the consumption expenditure of residents,and in the process of the increase of household leverage,the household leverage ratio has a threshold effect on the consumption expenditure of residents.At the same time,the disposable income of residents is in direct proportion to their consumption expenditure.In addition,urbanization rate,as an important indicator to describe the economic situation of a region,will also have a positive effect on consumer spending.A rise in household-sector lending would reduce consumer demand.Therefore,while encouraging households to increase leverage to stimulate consumption and boost domestic demand,the credit and liquidity risks brought by the increase of leverage to the household sector cannot be ignored.A complete family risk assessment and risk prevention and control system in line with China's actual situation as soon as possible should be established by the government and financial supervision departments,a complete information support and guarantee is provided for macro-control and financial supervision.

关 键 词：家庭杠杆率 消费支出 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F830.589[经济管理—金融学]