塔吉克斯坦外债:结构优化与风险隐患并存  

Tajikistan’s External Debt: Structural Optimization and Risk Hazards Coexist

作　　者：周丽华[1] ZHOU Lihua(Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学

出　　处：《新疆财经大学学报》2019年第3期12-20,共9页Journal of Xinjiang University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“利用上合组织与CAREC机制推进新疆与中亚区域经济合作研究”(14BJL050);新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金重点项目“丝绸之路经济带核心区金融中心建设研究”(050115B03)

摘　　要：国际金融机构和外国政府为塔吉克斯坦政府提供的优惠贷款具有减缓其外债压力的作用。然而,塔吉克斯坦经济结构单一、对俄罗斯经济高度依赖、外汇收入受国际市场制约、进口刚性需求居高不下、贸易逆差持续扩大、依靠“借新补旧”偿还外债的恶性循环状态使其具有爆发债务危机的可能,因而具有极高的外债偿付危机风险隐患。中国是塔吉克斯坦第一大债权国、第一大投资来源国和第三大贸易伙伴国,针对塔吉克斯坦存在的外债偿付危机风险隐患,中国政府可在塔吉克斯坦改善经济结构、加快产业升级、增强内生发展动力、扩大出口创汇规模等方面提供帮助,使其形成良性的贷款—投资—收益机制,增强其防范发生外债危机的能力,从而有效规避塔吉克斯坦发生外债危机的风险。The preferential loan structure provided by the international financial institutions and foreign governments to the government of Tajikistan has the effect on slowing down the pressure of Tajikistan's foreign debt.However,the Tajikistan's single economic structure,a high degree of dependence on Russia,the constraint of the foreign exchange income of Tajikistan by the international market,the remaining high import rigid demand,the continuously expanding trade deficit,and its reliance on the vicious cycle of repaying foreign debts by borrowing new supplements make a debt crisis in Tajikistan possible,and thus has a high risk of external debt repayment crisis.As China is the largest creditor country of Tajikistan,also is the largest source of investment and the third largest trading partner of Tajikistan.The Chinese government can provide assistance to Tajikistan in improving its economic structure,accelerating industrial upgrading,enhancing the internal driving force for development and expanding the scale of foreign exchange earnings from exports,so as to form a benign loan-investment-return mechanism and enhance the ability to prevent foreign debt crisis so as to effectively avoid the risk of foreing debt crisis of Tajikistan.

关 键 词：塔吉克斯坦 外债结构 偿付危机 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]