土壤相对湿度对冬小麦干热风灾害发生的影响  

The Influence of Soil Relative Moisture on Dry-hot Wind Disaster of Winter Wheat

作　　者：尚莹 霍治国[1,2] 张蕾 李建勇 吴立 范雨娴 邬定荣[1] 王纯枝 刘宏举 Shang Ying;Huo Zhiguo;Zhang Lei;Li Jianyong;Wu Li;Fan Yuxian;Wu Dingrong;Wang Chunzhi;Liu Hongiur(Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beiing 100081;Collaboratize Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Naniing Unizersity of Information Science & Technologv,Naniing 210044;National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081;Pingyu Meteorological Bureau of Henan Provinee,Zhumadian 463400;Fujian Meteorological Service Center,Fuzhou 350001;Yivang Meteorological Bureau of Hunan Province,Yivang 4130007;Hebei Instiute of Meteorological Sciences,Shijiachuang 050021)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044 [3]国家气象中心,北京100081 [4]河南省平舆县气象局,驻马店463400 [5]福建省气象服务中心,福州350001 [6]湖南省益阳市气象局,益阳413000 [7]河北省气象科学研究所,石家庄050021

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2019年第5期598-607,共10页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金(2018KJ012);“十二五”国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAD20B02)

摘　　要：以华北黄淮地区高温低湿型冬小麦干热风灾害为研究对象,基于逐日逐时气象资料、分层土壤水分资料、灾情资料等,采用历史灾情反演、独立t检验等方法,将灾情记录中无明确记载和有明确记载土壤相对湿度影响干热风灾害的样本分为A类和B类,基于两类样本相互独立,厘定各土层对干热风灾害有影响的土壤相对湿度阈值,利用随机预留样本验证阈值的合理性。结果表明:分层和整层土壤相对湿度阈值均随土层深度增加而增大,其中整层阈值平均值近似60%;独立样本检验符合率在80%左右。为便于业务应用,选取10~20 cm土层相对湿度60%为土壤相对湿度对冬小麦干热风灾害影响的临界阈值。当土壤相对湿度大于等于60%时,土壤相对湿度对冬小麦干热风灾害影响显著;当土壤相对湿度小于60%时,土壤相对湿度对冬小麦干热风灾害影响较小,独立样本检验符合率达82.5%。该文为量化评估土壤相对湿度对冬小麦干热风灾害的影响提供了科学依据。Based on daily and hourly meteorological data,layered soil moisture data and disaster data,the dryhot wind disasters of winter wheat accompanying high temperature and low humidity are studied in North China and Huanghuai Region through historical disaster inversion,normal distribution test,soil moisture treatment and independent t-test.These disaster samples are classified:Class A samples are not affected by the relative humidity of soil,while Class B samples are affected by the relative humidity of soil.Thresholds of soil relative humidity on dry-hot wind disaster of wheat are determined according to independence of samples in two groups,and verified by random samples.Relative humidity values of the whole and layered soil layers subject to normal distribution.The relative humidity of Sample A and Sample B in each soil layer is independent.Thresholds of relative humidity affecting dry-hot wind disaster are 58%-65%for the whole soil layer and 56%-75%for layered soil.The mean value of the whole layer is approximately 60%and increases with the depth of the soil layer.The coincidence rate of relative humidity threshold of each soil layer is between 72.5%and 85%with average value about 80%,which could reasonably reflect the influence of soil relative humidity on dry-hot wind disaster of wheat.For convenience in application,60%of the soil relative humidity in depth of 10-20 cm layer is selected as the critical threshold to determine the influence of soil relative humidity on the dry-hot wind disaster of northern winter wheat,being significant when it is greater than or equal to 60%and ignoral when less than 60%.The conformance rate of independent samples is 82.5%.Results provide a scientific basis for quantifying effects of soil relative humidity on the dry-hot wind disaster of winter wheat.

关 键 词：华北 黄淮地区 冬小麦干热风灾害 土壤相对湿度 影响阈值 

分 类 号：S512.11[农业科学—作物学] S42