基于事故树的水下隧道火灾概率风险分析  

Analysis on Probability Risk of Underwater Tunnel Fire Based on Fault Tree

作　　者：蔡鑫[1] Cai Xin

机构地区：[1]深圳市交通公用设施建设中心

出　　处：《城市道桥与防洪》2019年第9期192-196,M0019,M0020,共7页Urban Roads Bridges & Flood Control

摘　　要：为研究水下隧道火灾失控造成人员伤亡的概率,以建筑火灾风险评估和安全工程理论为基础,采用事件树与事故树分析方法,以隧道火灾监控探测及火灾报警、火灾控制和人员疏散为关键因素建立相应的事故树模型,获得了水下隧道运营期间的火灾风险概率。以妈湾隧道为依托,通过调研建立事故树模型,采取公路隧道养护技术规范中的机电设施设备完好率计算出火灾事故风险概率,之后引入重要度分析方法。结合最小割集、重要度排序及火灾事故风险概率进行分析,结果表明,水下隧道发生火灾时重要影响因素有火灾报警系统、监控中心工作人员和防排烟机械设备。所得结论可为深圳妈湾隧道运营管理提供了指导。In order to study the probability of casualties caused by the fire out of control in underwater tunnel, and based on the fire risk assessment and safety engineering theory of the buildings, the event tree and the fault tree analysis are used. Based on the key factors of fire monitoring detection, fire alarm, fire control and personnel evacuation of tunnel, the relevant fault tree model is established to achieve the fire risk probability of underwater tunnel in the operation period. Relying on Mawan Tunnel, the fault tree model is established through investigation and survey. The equipment availability of electromechanical facilities in the maintenance technical specification of highway tunnel is used to calculate the fire accident risk probability,and then the importance analysis is introduced. The analysis is carried out with the minimum cutset,importance ranking and fire accident risk probability. The result shows that the important influence factors are the fire alarm system, monitor center staff and smoke control mechanical equipment during the fire of underwater tunnel. The achieved conclusion can provide the guidance for the operation and management of Mawan Tunnel in Shenzhen.

关 键 词：水下隧道 事故树分析法(FTA) 概率风险分析 火灾安全 重要度 

分 类 号：U458.1[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]