屯昌县蜜柚精细化农业气象灾害风险区划  

Precise Risk Zonation of Agrometeorological Disasters for Pomelo in Tunchang

作　　者：陈升孛 张亚杰[2,3] 张明洁[2,3] 陈亮 黄兴[4] 张京红[2,3] CHEN Shengbei;ZHANG Yajie;ZHANG Mingjie;CHEN Liang;HUANG Xing;ZHANG Jinghong(Hainan Meteorological Service Center,Haikou,Hainan 570203;Hainan Climate Center,Haikou,Hainan 570203;Hainan Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation,Haikou,Hainan 570203;Environment and Plant Protection Institute,Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences,Haikou,Hainan 571101)

机构地区：[1]海南省气象服务中心,海南海口570203 [2]海南省气候中心,海南海口570203 [3]海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海南海口570203 [4]中国热带农业科学院环境与植物保护研究所,海南海口571101

出　　处：《热带农业科学》2019年第8期93-98,共6页Chinese Journal of Tropical Agriculture

基　　金：海南省气象局“海南省气象信息发布与监控平台研发”(No.HNQXZD201405)

摘　　要：屯昌县是海南省蜜柚的主要产区,开展屯昌蜜柚的精细化农业气象灾害风险区划,可为蜜柚种植推广和灾害防御提供更加科学合理的参考依据。利用2006~2017年屯昌县及周边39个高覆盖度区域气象站资料,通过构建蜜柚寒害指数和风害指数,计算致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性,建立屯昌蜜柚农业气象灾害风险评估模型,按自然断点法划分为5个风险等级。结果显示:高风险区主要分布在南坤镇、枫木镇、乌坡镇南部山区;较高风险区主要分布在南坤镇、枫木镇、坡心镇部分地区;中等风险区主要分布在南坤镇、枫木镇和乌坡镇部分地区;较低和低风险区主要分布在坡心镇、西昌镇、南坤镇北部地区。在高风险地区,可以适当调整当地蜜柚种植结构,加强灾害监测和预警,推广抗风、抗寒栽培和先进管理技术,保证稳产增收;在低风险区适宜大面积种植推广蜜柚。Tunchang County is the main pomelo producing area in Hainan Province. Precise risk zonation of agrometeorological disasters for planting pomelo in Tunchang will provide scientific reference for the promotion of pomelo cultivation and disaster prevention in Tunchang. According to the meteorological data of 39 automatic weather stations in and around the county from 2006 to 2017, chilling and wind injury indexes of pomelo were established, and three factors (hazard of disaster inducing factors, environmental sensitivity, and vulnerability) were estimated and selected to establish a risk assessment model of agrometeorological disasters for pomelo planting in Tunchang. The risk index of chilling injury to pomelo in Tunchang was calculated and five grades of risk were classified by using the natural breakpoint method. The results indicated that the higher risk areas were mainly in the southern mountainous areas of Nankun, Fengmu and Wupo Towns;that the high risk areas were mainly in parts of Nankun, Fengmu and Poxin Towns;that the medium risk areas were mainly in parts of Nankun, Fengmu and Wupo Towns;that the lower and low risk areas were mainly in the northern areas of Poxin, Xichang and Nankun Towns. In the high and higher risk areas it is suggested to adjust planting structure appropriately, strengthen disaster monitoring and early warning, popularize wind-resistant and cold-resistant cultivation and management to ensure stable yield and high income. In low risk areas pomelo can be planted on large scale in Tunchang.

关 键 词：蜜柚 风险区划 县级 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]