基于SOAR模型的高校网络舆情应急响应研究  

A Study on Crisis Response of Campus Network Public Opinion Based on SOAR Model

作　　者：凌晨[1] 冯俊文[1] 吴鹏[1] 张善飞 LING Chen;FENG Jun-wen;WU Peng;ZHANG Shan-fei(School of Economic and Management, Nanjing University of science and technology, Nanjing, 210094, China)

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《情报科学》2019年第9期145-152,共8页Information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“突发事件网民负面情感的模型检测研究”(71774084);江苏省“青蓝工程2016(15)”资助;南京理工大学党建与思政教育研究课题“高校舆情管理与意识形态建设研究”研究成果

摘　　要：【目的/意义】面向高校网络舆情应急管理需求,以网民群体负面情感的测量作为基点,预测网络舆情演变的路径和态势,进而支持突发事件应急响应策略的制定【方法/过程】基于SOAR(State,Operator and Result)模型和情境危机传播理论,设计高校网络舆情网民群体决策模型,包括工作记忆、长期记忆、决策过程等模块。结合典型高校网络舆情案例进行建模仿真,通过真实案例数据和实验数据的对比验证模型的有效性。【结果/结论】实证结果表明,基于网民群体决策行为规则的建模,可以分析和预测在不同网络舆情阶段、不同应急响应措施下网民群体的行为决策规律,从而为高校网络舆情应急管理提出有效的方法和模型。【Purpose/significance】Facing the demand of campus network public opinion, this study wants to predict the paths and status of the evolution of the campus network public opinion based on the measuring of the collective negative emotion.The research results can support the crises response strategy design.【Method/process】A collective behavior decision rule model is proposed based on the SOAR(State, Operator and Result) model and Situational Crisis Communication theory, which involves the modules such as working memory, long-term memory, decision-making process and so on. An experiment study is simulated with some typical cases of campus network public opinion, and it verifies the effectiveness of the model through the comparison of real case data and experimental data.【Result/conclusion】In different environments,such as different period of internet public opinion and different government crises response strategy,the rule of netizen collective decision behavior could be analyzed and predicted based on the modelling of it, which can provide effective methods and model for the crisis management of campus network public opinion.

关 键 词：SOAR模型 情境危机传播理论 高校网络舆情 网民群体决策行为 

分 类 号：C912.63[经济管理]